Office of Planning & Budgeting

May 18, 2015

June State Revenue Forecast – Early Release:

Today’s Economic and Revenue forecast was released a month ahead of schedule to help lawmakers reach agreement on the 2015–17 operating, capital and transportation budgets.

General Fund-State (GF-S) revenue forecast has been increased by $106 million for the 2013-2015 biennium and by $309 million for 2015-2017.

  • GF-S revenue for the 2013-2015 biennium is now $33.653 billion (9.8% higher than collections in the 2011-13 biennium), and
  • The forecasted GF-S revenue for the 2015-2017 biennium is now $36.758 billion (9.2% higher than collections in the 2013-15 biennium).

Revenue collections through May 10th were $61 M (1.8%) higher than forecasted. The surplus was entirely due to a $69 M surplus in real estate excise tax collections (large sale of commercial property). The surplus was offset by a $21 M shortfall in property tax collections.

A few additional highlights from the update:

  • Oil Prices are higher, and 2015 and 2016 GDP growth are weaker than in the February forecast.
  • Receipts from Revenue Act sources are $12 M (0.4%) higher than forecasted.
  • 17,200 new jobs have been added in the three months since the February forecast.