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September Revenue Forecast Anticipates Continued Moderate Growth

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Yesterday, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its September revenue forecast, which increased projected General Fund-State (GF-S) collections by $334 million for the current 2015-17 biennium and by $125 million for the upcoming 2017-19 biennium. As a reminder, there will be one more revenue forecast in November before Governor Inslee releases his proposed 2017-19 biennial budget in anticipation of the 2017 legislative session.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennium:

  • $37.765 billion for the 2015-17 biennium, 12.2 percent more than 2013-15
  • $40.377 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 6.9 percent more than 2015-17
  • $43.630 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 8.1 percent more than 2017-19

Behind the numbers:

  • Revenue collections from June to September were $225 million higher than forecasted in June, but over half of that increase was attributed to several large (and one-time) audit-related payments of past-due taxes.
  • This forecast noted slightly stronger personal income and employment compared to the June forecast.
  • Strong retail sales, housing construction, and real estate excise tax (REET) collections continue to create positive revenue trends.
  • Risks to the revenue forecast include weak labor productivity and slow economic growth (both in the U.S. and globally).

Any excess revenue collected in the 2015-17 biennium will contribute to reserves (est. $1.8 Billion) that will be available to spend in the 2017-19 biennium, however, the state continues to face significant budgetary challenges in complying with the State Supreme Court’s orders to fully fund K-12 education.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts and the upcoming 2017 legislative session.

UW’s 2017-19 State Operating Budget Request

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On September 15, 2016, OPB submitted the UW’s 2017-19 state operating budget request to the Governor’s Office of Financial Management. The UW is mindful of the continuing budget challenges facing the state of Washington and, thus, has limited its budget requests to the 11 most essential and strategic state investments for the 2017-19 biennium. These, along with a variety of mandatory reports and forms that make up a biennial state budget submission, are available on our website at the following location:  2017-19 Operating Budget Request

Here is a brief summary of our requests:

Maintenance Level

  1. Maintenance & Operations: For the Intellectual House, Burke Museum, Computer Science & Engineering expansion and UW Tacoma Urban Solutions facilities.
  2. WWAMI Spokane Continuation: To continue the recent increase of 20 UW medical students in Spokane to years three and four of their education program. The existing biennial budget funds these students for years one and two of the program.
  3. Marijuana Research: For additional marijuana research funding that was authorized in legislation during the 2015-17 biennium.
  4. Occupational Health Internship Management: For one full‐time staff member to help meet accreditation needs in the Dept. of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences.

Performance Level

  1. Competitive Compensation and Retention: For 4 percent salary and benefit increases in FY18 and FY19 for faculty and professional staff. Separate decision packages will be submitted for employees covered under collective bargaining agreements.
  2. Maintenance & Operations: For the Nano Engineering & Science Building and the Life Sciences Building.
  3. WWAMI Spokane Expansion: To expand the UW’s medical student education program in Spokane by an additional 20 students per cohort, starting in FY 2018.
  4. Tri-Campus Student Success Initiative: To expand programs at all three campuses that improve access, retention, graduation and career preparation, with an emphasis on first generation, low-income, underrepresented minority and transfer students—especially those in STEM fields.
  5. RIDE Expansion Bridge: To permit RIDE students to spend their second year of dental education in Spokane, rather than returning to Seattle. This program is in partnership with Eastern Washington University.
  6. High-Demand Enrollments: To expand instructional capacity and enrollment at all three campuses in high-demand fields, such as engineering, computer science, ocean engineering and cyber operations.
  7. Regenerative Medicine Institute: To support the Institute’s scientific cores, add new faculty, provide pilot grants to leverage federal research grants, support student research training and provide translational bridge awards to convert research breakthroughs into products with commercial potential.
  • Additional Attachment: A request for a transportation budget appropriation for a Washington State Research Vessel to be operated by the UW and used by local, state, federal and tribal agencies.

Please contact Jed Bradley or Becka Johnson Poppe if you have questions.

Introducing Peer Finance Dashboards!

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OPB’s Institutional Analysis team and UW-IT’s Enterprise Information, Integration & Analytics unit announce seven new peer finance dashboards, available now in UW Profiles. These new dashboards join four existing peer dashboards. Peer dashboards use data publicly available through the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) to allow users to compare the UW to peer institutions around the country on a range of student- and finance-focused measures.

With the new finance dashboards, users can compare revenues, expenses, and endowment values at the UW and peer institutions. They can also explore the relative importance of different revenue sources and expense categories across institutions. The expenses story dashboard provides a step-by-step look at the expenses that directly or indirectly support universities’ research and instruction missions.

More information about each of the new peer finance dashboards is available through the online documentation. Please feel free to send any questions or comments to uwprofiles@uw.edu.

June Revenue Forecast Increases Projections for the 2015-17 and 2017-19 Biennia

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Last week, the Economic and Revenue Forecast Council (ERFC) released its June revenue forecast, which increased projected General Fund-State (GF-S) collections by $294 million for the current 2015-17 biennium and by $126 million for the upcoming 2017-19 biennium. This is an improvement over the February forecast, which had predicted slower revenue growth in both biennia (see our blog post here). As a reminder, there will be at least three more revenue forecasts between now and when the legislature sets the 2017-19 budget.

Here is a quick summary of the total projected GF-S revenue for each biennia:

  • $37.431 billion for the 2015-17 biennium, 11.2 percent more than 2013-15.
  • $40.252 billion for the 2017-19 biennium, 7.5 percent more than 2015-17.
  • $43.575 billion for the 2019-21 biennium, 8.3 percent more than 2017-19.

Behind the numbers:

  • The forecast attributed the increase to strong sales of large commercial properties and rising home prices.
  • Other positives included growth in housing permits and increases in inflation, which typically result in greater retail sales, business taxes, and property taxes.
  • Slight decreases in U.S. and Washington state personal income forecasts continue to have a negative effect on the revenue forecast.

According to a press release from the Governor’s Office of Financial Management, “With the latest forecast, the state is now projected to have nearly $1.5 billion in total reserves at the end of the current biennium and more than $1.4 billion at the end of the 2017–19 biennium. Those reserve figures, however, do not take into account the multibillion obligation the state faces in the next biennium to meet its constitutional obligation to fully fund basic education.”

As a result, state agencies, including the UW, have received instructions to severely limit requests for new programs or policy initiatives in their requests for state funding in the 2017-19 biennium.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on revenue forecasts.

Updated OPB Brief: Governor Action on 2016 Compromise Supplemental Operating and Capital Budgets

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On April 18, Governor Inslee signed the final compromise operating budget after vetoing several sections. One of the Governor’s vetoes reversed a plan to convert activities conducted by the Office of Financial Management (OFM) into a “central service.” As a result of the veto, the UW will no longer be billed approximately $2.03 million from tuition operating fee revenue to cover those services.

Our updated brief is here. Please contact Jed Bradley or Becka Johnson Poppe if you have any questions.

OPB Brief: Final 2016 Supplemental Operating and Capital Budgets

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The 2016 Legislature concluded its business having passed supplemental operating and capital budgets before the scheduled close of the 30-day special session. Please see the OPB brief for a detailed overview of the final compromise budgets.

While the compromise operating budget includes $3.513 million in additional biennial funding to “true up” the tuition backfill associated with 2ESB 5954, the increase is partially offset by more than $2 million in new, ongoing, biennial charges for services provided by the Office of Financial Management.

The compromise capital budget does not include any changes for the UW.

Please contact Jed Bradley or Becka Johnson Poppe if you have any questions.

Special Session and Senate Second Supplemental Budget Offer

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The House and Senate did not come to an agreement on a 2016 supplemental budget by the end of the 60-day regular session, which was slated to end March 10. Several news outlets reported the tense ending, which featured Governor Inslee vetoing 27 bills (see an example here). The Governor convened a 30-day special session, which began immediately.

On Friday, leadership in the Senate Ways & Means Committee released a new proposal for a 2016 supplemental operating budget (PSSB 6667). Last month, OPB released a brief comparing the Governor’s proposal, House proposal, and the Senate’s original proposal. That brief outlines the major components of each budget.

Like the Senate’s original proposal, this offer proposes $3.513 million in additional biennial funding to “true up” the tuition backfill associated with 2ESB 5954. However, both Senate proposals would almost entirely negate this additional backfill funding by converting activities conducted by the Office of Financial Management (OFM) into a central service charged to state agencies. Over the biennium, the UW would be charged $1.252 million from its state general fund appropriation and $2.042 million from tuition operating fee revenue for these OFM central services, a total of $3.294 million.

This proposal differs from the original Senate proposal in that it: 

  • Does not cut WWAMI: The original proposal included a cut of $1.2 million
  • Does not fund a proviso for youth suicide prevention at UW’s Forefront: The original proposal allocated $97,000 in FY17 to fund 2SSB 6243, but that bill did not pass the House.
  • Shifts $18 million in cost savings from College Bound (CB) program to State Need Grant (SNG): The original proposal shifted only $14 million, effectively cutting SNG by $4.5 million.

During a press conference responding to this release, leadership in the House emphasized continuing negotiations toward a compromised budget and gave no indication that they would release a public budget offer.

Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on proposed budgets.

2016 Supplemental Budget Proposals

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This week, leadership in the House and Senate released their respective supplemental operating and capital budget proposals for the current biennium (FY16 & FY17), which follow the December release of Governor Jay Inslee’s proposals. As a reminder, the House and Senate proposals will be amended before they pass their respective chambers.

Please see the OPB brief for a detailed comparison of the House, Senate and Governor’s supplemental operating and capital budget proposals.

Some highlights:

  • The budget released by the leadership in the Senate Ways & Means Committee would provide the most funding overall, largely because it includes additional funding for the resident undergraduate tuition reduction backfill associated with 2ESB 5954.
  • None of the three capital budgets provide additional funding for the UW beyond the original 2015-17 capital budget.

Legislators will have until March 10, the last day of session, to complete and pass a compromise budget.

2016 Supplemental Budget – House Appropriations Committee Proposal

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Earlier today, the leadership in the House Appropriations Committee released their 2016 supplemental operating budget proposal. Toward the end of this week, the leadership in the Senate Ways & Means Committee will release their budget. Following that release, we will post a brief here outlining the differences between Governor Inslee’s proposed budget and the House and Senate proposals.

As a reminder, supplemental budgets include technical corrections and minor appropriation changes to the current 2015-17 biennial budget (fiscal years 2016 and 2017). Budget proposals in the House and the Senate will be amended in their respective committees, and possibly on each chamber floor, before negotiations begin towards a compromise budget.

Overview of the House budget:

Compared to the Governor’s proposal, the UW would receive an additional $50,000 to fully fund the implementation of HB 1138. In addition, the House budget would not reduce the UW’s allocation for legal services (the Governor proposed a reduction of $151,000).

Under the House proposal, the UW’s share of the settlement in the Moore v. HCA lawsuit would increase to nearly $16.3 million, compared to $15.6 million in the Governor’s budget.

The House Capital Budget Committee will release its 2016 supplemental capital budget proposal on Wednesday. Stay tuned to the OPBlog for updates on proposed budgets as they move through the process.