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The End is in Sight

The longest government shutdown in U.S. history is poised to end, with the House of Representatives scheduled to reconvene at approximately 4 p.m. Wednesday to vote on a funding bill passed by the Senate earlier this week.

The Senate measure advanced with the support of all Republican senators and a group of eight Democrats, a move that has sparked intense backlash from progressive activists and deepened divisions within the Democratic caucus. While the bipartisan support helped propel the bill forward procedurally, most Senate Democrats remain staunchly opposed to the package, citing concerns over spending priorities and the exclusion of key Democratic provisions.

In the House, the funding bill faces similar resistance from Democratic lawmakers. Despite this, Speaker Mike Johnson has expressed confidence that the measure will garner sufficient Republican support to pass, effectively ending the shutdown that has paralyzed federal operations for weeks.

The proposed legislation includes a short-term extension of funding for most federal agencies through January 30, 2026, providing a temporary reprieve while negotiations continue on broader appropriations. In addition to the stopgap funding, the package incorporates three full-year appropriations bills covering:

  • Military Construction and Veterans Affairs: Ensuring continued support for infrastructure projects and essential services for veterans.
  • Agriculture and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA): Funding critical programs related to food safety, rural development, and agricultural subsidies.
  • Legislative Branch Operations: Maintaining the functioning of Congress and its support agencies, including staff salaries and administrative services.

House Democrats are expected to introduce an amendment aimed at extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) tax credits for an additional three years—a provision that has broad support among the party’s base. However, the amendment is unlikely to pass given the Republican opposition.

One Small Step…

Last evening, by a vote of 60-40, the Senate finally agreed proceed on a legislative package that would, among other things, reopen the government. This represents the first step of many that would fund  and reopen the government.

After more a dozen failed procedural votes, the Senate was finally able to reach the 60-vote threshold on a proposal to move forward: In addition to legislation to reopen the government that includes backpay for federal workers, the agreement also includes a December vote to extend Obamacare subsidies.

Among other items, the legislative package that the Senate agreed to debate on includes: 

  • Three of the twelve full-year appropriations bills:  Agriculture; Legislative Branch; and Veterans Affairs;
  • a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the other parts of the government through January 30;
  • backpay for furloughed federal workers; and,
  • a prohibition on additional reductions in the federal workforce through the length of the CR.

Eight Democrats joined the vast majority of the Republicans in moving the proposal forward while one Republican opposed the move.

This agreement does not mean that the Senate has officially voted to approved the measure.  It just means that the Senate can now proceed to consider the package. 

In addition, if the Senate does ultimately approve it, the House– which has been in recess since September 19– must reconvene to pass it as well.  Finally, assuming both chambers agree, the final measure must be signed by the President.

At the end of the day, the Senate agreement to move forward represents the first step in a longer process to reopen the government.

 

Government Shutdown Nears Historic Milestone as Congressional Standoff Deepens

With no resolution in sight, the federal government is barreling toward a grim milestone: one full month of shutdown. If the impasse continues through November 4, it will become the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, eclipsing the 35-day closure during President Trump’s first term.

The deadlock stems from a bitter standoff between House Republicans and Senate Democrats over a stopgap spending bill passed by the House on September 19. Since then, the lower chamber has not held a single vote. Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), in a strategic move to pressure Senate Democrats, has kept the House in a “district work week” for four consecutive weeks—effectively sending lawmakers back to their home districts rather than convening in Washington.

Senate Democrats have blocked the House-passed spending bill a dozen times, citing concerns that it would gut healthcare subsidies and drive-up costs for millions of Americans. Republicans, meanwhile, argue that the bill is a necessary first step to keep the government open and that healthcare provisions can be negotiated separately.

The consequences of the shutdown are set to intensify in the coming days. More than 40 million Americans who rely on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) face the expiration of their benefits on November 1. The Trump Administration has stated it will not use emergency funds to extend the program.

Meanwhile, millions of federal employees and active-duty military personnel are bracing for another missed paycheck. The National Federation of Federal Employees, the country’s largest federal worker union, issued a scathing statement this week, urging Congress to “immediately pass a funding bill and restore full pay to the public servants who keep this country running.”

The prolonged shutdown is taking a toll on both parties. A Gallup poll conducted in early October shows public frustration boiling over: Congressional approval has plummeted from 26% to just 15% in a matter of weeks. Analysts warn that the longer the shutdown drags on, the more political damage lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are likely to suffer.
Despite the growing pressure, leadership in both parties remains entrenched. Democrats continue to insist that the House bill is a “non-starter” due to its impact on healthcare, while Republicans maintain that the Senate’s refusal to negotiate is prolonging the crisis.

Vice President Vance will be on the Hill today to have lunch with congressional Republicans, and the issue of the shutdown is sure to dominate conversation. Despite growing concerns for both parties, there appears to be no end in sight.

 

Federal Government Shuts Down

Efforts by both parties to pass competing versions of a spending bill collapsed Tuesday night in the Senate, triggering the first federal government shutdown since President Trump’s first term. After months of partisan stalemate, last-ditch negotiations failed, leaving federal agencies officially without funding.

The Congressional Budget Office estimates the shutdown will cost agencies $400 million per day, with roughly 750,000 federal employees furloughed. While these workers won’t be paid during the shutdown, a 2019 law guarantees back pay once it ends for those who are retained.

Under guidance from the Office of Management and Budget, thousands of furloughed employees may receive layoff notices. Federal unions filed suit Tuesday to block the move, while the White House budget office urged agencies to consider terminating programs that lose funding. President Trump and his OMB Director Russ Vought have long sought to permanently reshape the government and appear poised to do so under the shutdown.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) said he will continue pushing votes on the House-passed budget bill, betting that prolonged pressure will prompt more Democrats to cross the aisle. So far, Democratic Senators Catherine Cortez Masto (NV), Angus King (ME), and John Fetterman (PA) have broken ranks to support the GOP measure. Cortez Masto and King, who is an independent that caucuses with Democrats, cited concerns that a shutdown would only grant the Trump Administration more power to dismantle the government as the rationale for their votes. Despite these defections, Republicans still need at least five more Democratic votes to reopen the government.

White House Tells Agencies to Prepare for Mass Firings

The White House budget office is instructing federal agencies to prepare reduction-in-force (RIF) plans for mass firings during a possible government shutdown, specifically targeting employees who work for programs that are not legally required to continue.

In a recently released memo, the Office of Management and Budget told agencies to consider RIF notices for all “employees in programs, projects, or activities (PPAs) that satisfy all three of the following conditions: (1) discretionary funding lapses on October 1, 2025; (2) another source of funding, such as H.R. 1 (Public Law 119-21) is not currently available; and (3) the PPA is not consistent with the President’s priorities.”

These RIF notices will be in addition to any furlough notices sent out as a result of a potential shutdown. Furthermore, the memo stipulates that once FY26 appropriations are enacted, agencies should “revise their RIFs as needed to retain the minimal number of employees necessary to carry out statutory functions.”

During previous shutdowns, the government has issued temporary furloughs to most federal employees, bringing them back once Congress voted to reopen the government. This time, however, the Trump Administration is using the threat of permanent job cuts as leverage, seeking to make a potential shutdown as painful as possible for congressional Democrats. Agencies have been instructed to submit their proposed RIF plans to OMB and to issue notices to employees whose jobs may be cut.

According to Politico, a number of programs will continue regardless of a shutdown, including “Social Security, Medicare, veterans benefits, military operations, law enforcement, Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Customs and Border Protection and air traffic control.”

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), who voted with Republicans in March to keep the government funded, is holding firm in his opposition to the Republican funding plan. Schumer faced considerable criticism from the party base after his decision in March, which he claimed was aimed at preventing the very dismantling of federal agencies proposed by this memo. This time around, however, Schumer says he has revised that view, arguing that the administration’s attacks on federal agencies “will get worse with or without [a shutdown], because Trump is lawless.”

The memo states that RIF plans submitted to OMB will not be implemented if the government receives funding by September 30. That outcome, however, appears increasingly unlikely.