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News and updates

News and updates

Economic Outlook for 2013

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) yesterday released its updated “Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022.” According to CBO:

“For fiscal year 2012 (which ends on September 30), the federal budget deficit will total $1.1 trillion, CBO estimates, marking the fourth year in a row with a deficit of more than $1 trillion. That projection is down slightly from the $1.2 trillion deficit that CBO projected in March. At 7.3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP), this year’s deficit will be three-quarters as large as the deficit in 2009 when measured relative to the size of the economy. Federal debt held by the public will reach 73 percent of GDP by the end of this fiscal year—the highest level since 1950 and about twice the share that it measured at the end of 2007, before the financial crisis and recent recession.”

In addition, CBO projects that the nation will enter into a deep recession in 2013 if Congress fails to address the sequester and the expiring Bush tax cuts. CBO also suggests that going over the “fiscal cliff” would disrupt economic progress, reduce real GDP by 0.5 percent, and push unemployment over 9.1 percent.

The outlook is darker than the forecast the agency released in January, when CBO predicted that the fiscal cliff would trigger a modest recession in the first half of 2013, followed by a quick recovery. The expiring “extenders” package for unemployment benefits and payroll tax holiday, coupled with a weaker economy has made the 2013 outlook more dire.  Reactions and analyses of CBO’s report are available from the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, and the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Obama Calls for Compromise on Sequester

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President Obama said Monday that he thinks both parties can compromise and avert the across-the-board spending cuts under sequestration that could take sizable cuts out of both defense and non-defense discretionary spending.  In an interview with The Virginian-Pilot’s military editor that focused on the sequester — the 10-year, $500 billion cut to both defense and non-defense discretionary spending set to hit in January 2013 — Obama said that both Democrats and Republicans have to give to reach a deal. 

Despite the President’s call for compromise on sequestration, the two parties remain deadlocked on a solution to avert the cuts, which both parties consider bad policy.  Obama and Democrats have said that Republicans are protecting tax cuts for the wealthy over the defense cuts, while Republicans say that Democrats are holding the military hostage to force tax increases.

No action on this will be taken until after the November elections.  And, based on past efforts to reduce the national debt, it is still unclear whether or not either party is willing to compromise to reach a middle ground or “grand bargain” on this effort.  Time will tell.  In the meantime, we are advising the UW community to plan for a potential of 8.4% (or more) cuts to federal grants and contracts.

Sequestration Transparency Act Signed Into Law

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On August 7th, President Obama signed into law HR 5872, the Sequestration Transparency Act (PL 112-155). As previously reported on this site, in July, Congress overwhelmingly cleared the bill which requires the Administration to report, within 30 days, the effects of the automatic budget sequester at the “program, project and activity level.”  The Administration will have to clarify the reductions that will result from the looming across-the-board cuts of sequestration.  This information will be made public shortly after Labor Day, and should help UW and others plan for the impacts of sequestration.

NSF Accepting RAPID Proposals

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The NSF Directorates for Biological Sciences (BIO), Geosciences (GEO), Engineering (ENG), Mathematical and Physical Sciences (MPS), and Computer & Information Science & Engineering (CISE) and the Office of Cyberinfrastructure (OCI) are accepting proposals to conduct research on the potential threat to the North American west coast from debris fields associated with the March 2011 Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Proposals must conform to the guidelines for preparation of Rapid Response Research (RAPID) proposals as specified in the NSF Grant Proposal Guide (GPG) available at: http://www.nsf.gov/publications/pub_summ.jsp?ods_key=gpg.

Congress in Recess Until September 10

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After a lackluster week, the House and Senate left for their August recess last night and won’t be back until September 10th. Unless the House agrees to formally adjournment today, and I don’t think they will, the Senate will be forced to hold a series of pro forma sessions on each Tuesday and Friday through Labor Day.  Pro forma sessions are where the chamber gavels in and gavels out while conducting no official business.  This is just more of the silliness that exists in DC these days with both chambers and both parties continuing to one-up each other in an effort to demonstrate their political leadership.  It is safe to say that there will be no official legislative business in DC until after September 10th.

The Office of Federal Relations team will continue to post news of interest during the August recess, but will be spending much of our time on the three UW campuses meeting with folks and organizing tours/meetings/briefings for congressional staff and federal officials.  Drop us a note if you’d like to meet with us on campus during August.