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Continuing Resolution Released

Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Thad Cochran (R-MS) just released the text of a short-term continuing resolution. Immediately following that announcement, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) offered that CR as a substitute amendment to H.J.Res.61 and filed cloture on the amendment. That cloture vote is expected to occur Thursday afternoon at a time to be determined. That vote is expected to fail with Democrats voting against it.

Majority Leader McConnell will then strip out the Planned Parenthood defunding provision and the Senate would vote on a clean CR. Procedurally, they would have to take at least one additional cloture vote to advance the clean CR, which could occur over the weekend with final passage possibly delayed into next week. Assuming that clean CR passes, the House next week will have to decide whether to accept it and keep the government open or reject it, leading to a shutdown.

The proposed CR would keep government operating through December 11, 2015. It provides funding for all discretionary programs at the FY2015 levels, except for a very small number of anomalies, such as an additional $700 million to fight wildfires.  It contains a small across-the-board cut of 0.2108 percent to keep total funding under the FY2016 budget caps.

For more details see on the substance:

FY2016 Continuing Resolution One-Pager

FY2016 Continuing Resolution Section-by-Section Analysis

FY2016 Continuing Resolution Legislation

 

Pope Week with China Too!

Originally this week was scheduled to be a recess week to observe Yom Kippur, but Congress is back this week to welcome Pope Francis to town. Incidentally, the Pope’s visit to DC is just one of series of high profile visitors. King Felipe VI and Queen Letizia of Spain were in town last week for a state visit (they went to Mt. Vernon and Georgetown -he’s an alum), and it garnered very little media attention. This week, however, the Pope will land Tuesday and take off Thursday from Joint Base Andrews and everyone is paying attention. President Obama and the First Lady will be on hand to welcome Pope Francis when he lands, which is big deal. Presidents and their spouses do not normally go to the airport to help welcome guests and it speaks volumes as to the importance of the Pope’s visit and the weight the Administration is giving that visit. When the Pope heads back to Andrews, he will pass China President Xi Jinping, who is coming to DC Thursday. The Chinese president lands in Washington DC for two days after spending time in Seattle and Tacoma earlier in the week.

Pope Francis

Residents of the DC-Maryland-Virginia area are girding their loins for the Pope’s visit this week. It’s expected to bring thousands of people to the area and cause major traffic issues. Roads are closed for the Pope’s welcome, travel to meetings and parade. In fact, the federal Office of Personnel Management is encouraging federal workers to telecommute for the entirety of the visit and treat it like three snow days.

The big agenda item for Congress is when the Pope addresses a joint session on Thursday morning. After the joint session, the Pope will address the crowd on the West Front of the Capitol, in what will be inauguration-like set up. The joint session could be a somewhat uncomfortable situation for Congressional Republicans since Pope Francis has delivered an encyclical calling for increased action against climate changedenounced the role of global capitalism in increasing poverty, and enthusiastically supported the new nuclear accord with Iran (which the House and Senate both worked on derailing last week). Now the Pope, whom American Catholics overwhelmingly support, arrives as Republicans wrestle with their opposition to these issues and with perceptions of intolerance.

One sliver lining is that Republicans are hoping the visit will help emphasize recent antiabortion efforts in the House. For over ten hours last week, the House debated a two bills designed to curtail abortions after 20 weeks and end Planned Parenthood’s access to federal funds for one year. The measures passed largely by party lines. The Senate will begin procedural motions to consider the legislation this week. The two bills were:

The elephant in the room is a concern on optics of a potential government shutdown on October 1st, just days after the Pope will likely deliver a message of tolerance, charity and love. A short-term continuing resolution is looking increasingly unlikely. The Planned Parenthood funding controversy has put the Administration and Congress at odds as the White House will veto any bill that defunds the group and Congressional Republicans do not have the votes to override a veto. Additionally, the dispute between the political parties over military and domestic funding has so far been impossible to negotiate. Democrats want both military and domestic spending increased while Republicans have proposed an increase for the military but a reduction in domestic programs…Stay Tuned.

The Washington Post has all things Pope Francis related.

Politico has a long piece on the Pope and his politics.

President Xi

As the Pope leaves, Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives in town for several days in Washington, DC in what could be a somewhat tense meeting. Xi will be in the United States all week, with a stop first in Seattle on Tuesday and Wednesday where he will visit Boeing and Microsoft company facilities. Xi will travel to Washington on Thursday for an official state visit and meeting with President Barack Obama on Friday. The two are expected to discuss a wide range of issues, including cyber attacks and climate change, and could cover economic issues like biotechnology approvals and bilateral investment treaty negotiations.

The broad goal for China is to improve relations with the United States, while asserting the nation’s role as a superpower. It’s a complicated visit in the midst of recent turmoil in Chinese markets and economy. China’s economy has slowed more abruptly than policy makers have appeared ready for, alarming investors around the world. The government overestimated its ability to keep stock prices aloft, spending billions to bolster the Chinese markets.

Top on the agenda for the Administration are issues related to cyber security to stem the tide of private sector trade-secrets and intellectual-property thefts linked to China’s government and the People’s Liberation Army and the South China Sea issue.

Administration officials began anonymously threatening targeted sanctions against offending Chinese businesses in advance of the summit. While Chinese attacks on private businesses have gone down in recent days, it’s unclear if this reduction is a cease-fire or an effort to make nice before the leaders meet. In addition, US officials are hoping to ink a first-of-its-kind cyber arms deal during Xi’s visit – essentially an agreement that neither side would move first to destroy the other’s critical infrastructure by cyber means, according to a New York Times story. If completed, the deal would square with a series of peacetime cyber norms the US has been pushing at the United Nations and elsewhere. The China deal would lend significant credibility to the US’s larger diplomatic mission in cyberspace, but it would do little to address genuine points of cyber conflict between the nations.

The US is worried about freedom of navigation in one of the busiest commercial waterways in the world, the South China Sea, and has told China to stop building artificial islands and to halt construction of military facilities on those islands. China considers itself to have sovereign rights over about 80 percent of the South China Sea. It is unlikely that the two sides will bridge their differences, but they may agree to try to manage them.

The meeting is an important first between the two leaders. It should be noted, however, that Xi is incredibly popular in China and expected to easily serve the next seven years, while Obama has 16 months left. It is unknown how much the two leaders can agree on at this meeting.

The New York Times has Xi’s full schedule and agenda. 

Lighter Reading

Here’s a Politico Article about Queen Letizia and Michelle Obama’s “fashion off” for the state visit, which includes a good background on why King Felipe is now king (and why is father abdicated). 

What We’re Reading This Week, September 14-18

Here’s a selection of articles that the Federal Relations team is enjoying this week.

Chicago, Illinois. In the waiting room of the Union Station (LOC)
Union Station, Chicago, IL (LOC)

The Science Teacher -A long form read on house Science Committee Chairman Lamar Smith (R-TX), his interests, and how the House Science Committee functions. Read it at National Journal. 

Bill$ – Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is trying to downplay expectations on a recently revealed Continuing Resolution discussion. Right now, the expectation is that the CR will fund the government sometime between Thanksgiving and Christmas, which will give House and Senate Leadership time to discuss a larger full-funding measure with higher budget caps. Read more at The Hill. 

Join Us! – A new Administration initiative is encouraging legal immigrants to become American citizens. This is one of five ambitious Executive Orders announced in the last few weeks regarding immigration. Read more at the New York Times. 

The Debate – The Republican presidential candidates met again on Wednesday for a debate with CNN. It was three hours of sparing, zingers, specifics, facts and some exaggerations. Long and short, Carly won, easily. Here are some takeaways from Politico, the Washington Post, the New York Times, and Roll Call.

Fissions and Fractures – The House Freedom Caucus is down a member because of their tactics over…Planned Parenthood. Rep. Mike McClintock (R-CA) is leaving because he says that the methods used by the caucus are doing the opposite of helping the Freedom Caucus set the agenda, rather, they are driving the Republicans as a whole to do Nancy Pelosi’s bidding. Read more a Roll Call. 

Senate Says No – Meanwhile, the Senate Leadership, which is Republican, has said that Planned Parenthood should be an issue for the 2016 presidential race and that funding or defunding the organization is not going to be the reason Congress fails to fund the government. Read more at Roll Call. But! The Senate will vote on the funding. Read more at Politico.

Vetting the Vetters – Two controversial picks for high-level positions within the higher education community have put a leading search firm under scrutiny for how their picks are being found, selected and reviewed. Read more at Inside Higher Education.  

Clocks – A 14 year old in Irving, TX was suspended for three days and nearly arrested for bringing clock he made to school. Ahmed Mohamed was denied his rights (over three hours of being held the minor was denied the ability to call his parents despite repeated requests) and the school and Irving police force are maintaining they did what they needed to and did not handcuff, deny him his rights, and suspend Ahmed for brining a clock to school because he’s Muslim. Read more at the New York Times. #istandwithahmed

College Scorecard Back in Spotlight

Over the weekend, the Obama Administration had two major announcements for higher ed, first the new College Scorecard and the inclusion of Prior Prior Year for Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA).

College Scorecard

The Administration launched their new College Scorecard, which rather than rank colleges as previously attempted, incorporates numbers new data points on colleges going back for several years so that individuals can make personal decisions as to a college’s value. It is a scaled back attempt at what the Administration has announced previously. Information published includes annual cost, average graduation rate, median salary after attending, average financial aid and debt, as well as demographic breakdown of the school and average SAT and ACT scores.

The new College Scorecard data does not rank colleges, but shows the share of a college’s former students who make some progress in paying down their federal loans within the first three years after leaving college. Additionally, the Scorecard provides the first comprehensive look at how much students, who receive federal loans and Pell Grants end up earning after they leave a specific college, both in the short term and long term, and if that is above or below the earning potential with simply a high school education. At present, the Scorecard includes the federal graduation rate, which only captures first-time, full-time students. The Administration has publicly committed to include a dedicated link to Student Achievement Measure (SAM) data on the Scorecard as soon as practicable.  The Administration’s incorporation of the SAM, which is a long-term effort of APLU and the UW participates in SAM, opens the metrics up to tracking student movement across postsecondary institutions to provide a more complete picture of undergraduate student progress and completion within the higher education system. SAM is an alternative to the federal graduation rate, which is limited to tracking the completion of first-time, full-time students at one institution.

One criticism at the new system is that the government’s new earnings data reflects only the achievements of students who received federal financial aid, which could significantly skew the data and either understate possibly overstate the actual median earnings of a college’s former students.

Nationally, the federal student loan repayment rates underscore that hundreds of colleges are producing large numbers of graduates (as well as dropouts) who are not technically in default on their loans but are nonetheless not making any progress in repaying their debt. At present, the government only holds colleges responsible only when their former students get so far behind on their loans that they default on their loan debt. The new data also shows, according to the White House, that at 53 percent of all institutions of higher education, fewer than half of former students are earning more than the typical high school graduate.

Prior-Prior Year

Additionally, the Administration announced that students applying for federal financial aid can do so three months earlier next year. Beginning October 2016, students will be allowed to use prior-prior year tax data to determine financial contribution and eligibility. Right now, students have to wait until after their parents file their current year tax returns. The move will allow students to use tax information from two years earlier that is received electronically through the IRS rather than waiting until after the new year and the current year’s tax calculation.

Allowing millions of students to apply for federal financial aid three months earlier using prior-prior year tax data will cost about $400 million in the first year due to an expected additional 50,000 students getting federal aid and enrolling in college.

Such a policy change has broad support in Congress, but Republicans have also expressed concern over the potential cost. Additionally, Senate HELP Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander (R-TN) has expressed support for prior-prior year, but has stated it needs to originate from the higher education reauthorization and not an administrative move.

 

The College Scorecard is here. 

Read the Obama Weekly Address on the College Scorecard here. 

APLU”s statment on linking the Scorecard to the SAM data is here. 

APLU’s more general statement on the Scorecard here. 

September Budget Deal Looks Unlikely

Congressional leaders have given no indication they are in active negotiations on a long-term budget deal that would avert another round of sequestration. And there is little time left in the federal fiscal year to begin and conclude this type of deal with only eight scheduled legislative days between now and October 1st.

And between the Jewish holidays, the papal visit, and ongoing debate on the Iran nuclear deal, very little time remains for GOP leadership to build enough support to get continuing resolution (CR) approved by the House and sent it to the Senate. Congress must move some sort of appropriations bill before October 1st in order to avoid a politically embarrassing government shutdown. If Republicans want to adhere to their self-imposed three-day rule for considering legislation and vote on the stopgap next week, they would need to publicly post the text by Wednesday, when the House returns from a long Rosh Hashanah holiday weekend. So far, there are few details about the possible contents of the CR and its duration. Most importantly, it still is unclear whether GOP leaders will include a Planned Parenthood-related rider or language related to other issues, such as the nuclear deal with Iran.

Ultimately, we will likely see a CR approved just in time to avoid a government shutdown and then Congressional leaders will use the next couple of months to hammer out a deal on FY2016 appropriations. If they can’t come to agreement to lift the budget caps, we might see a strategy emerge to advance a year-long CR that maintains the status quo for federal spending and doesn’t trigger sequestration.