Skip to content
News and updates

News and updates

The 45th President of the United States Donald Trump

Posted on

Almost every DC pollster and expert thought that Clinton would win. They were all wrong. They were also wrong about the Senate. In the 115th Congress, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate, and the House.

Last night, Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. While a few states remain too close to call, Trump won 279 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. While Trump won the electoral math, it does appear as if Clinton will slightly overtake him in the popular vote.

Clinton conceded to Trump around 2:30 am EST.

A look at where Trump won helps explain why Trump won. Swing states expected to go for Clinton or to change Senate leadership — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina — all went for Trump. He carried three battle ground states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio — and then cracked Clinton’s blue wall with wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Few if any pundits predicted a Trump win in Pennsylvania or a lead in Michigan, each having been won by every Democratic Presidential candidate since President Reagan last notched a victory for Republicans in those states in 1988.

Clinton consistently underperformed President Obama’s strength with his winning coalition of college educated women, minorities, and young voters. While Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women, this margin was no better than Obama’s margin in 2008 or 2012 among this same group. Trump, on the other hand, logged support from 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points. White male voters, both with and without a college education supported Trump, and in the case of blue collar workers, overwhelmingly supported Trump.

While President Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support in this demographic group. The Clinton voter of the 2008 primaries became Trump voters in 2016 — and their concentration in tipping point states carried a significant impact in the result.

Congressional Results

In addition, the Senate Democrats only gained one seat, in Illinois, leaving the Senate in Republican control as Republicans are guaranteed 51 seats. Two Senate seats are still outstanding — New Hampshire has yet to be called and Louisiana will have a runoff in December. Regardless of who wins or if the sitting Republican Senators keep their seats, it will not change the majority.

The House remained in Republican control, but with a narrower, more conservative agenda. The very conservative House Freedom Caucus, and now a greater percentage of the House Republican Caucus, threatened to withhold support for Speaker Paul Ryan to remain Speaker in the 115th Congress.

Even so, elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” policy platform that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures, could easily rise to the top of the agenda with or without Ryan at the helm.

Washington’s Newest Member of Congress

Pramila Jayapal won Washington’s 7th Congressional District (CD) seat, which was filled for the last thirty years by Jim McDermott, who will retire this year. Jayapal will be the first Indian-American woman to be elected to the U.S. Congress. She moved to the United States in 1982 at the age of 16 to attend college, and worked as a civil rights advocate and Washington state senator prior to running for Congress.

She won with the support from 136,547 Seattle voters compared to opponent, fellow Democrat Brady Pinero Walkinshaw’s 102,341 votes.

Elsewhere in Washington, all incumbents will return to the nation’s capital for the 115th Congress. Here are the results by Congressional District:

  • US Senate: Patty Murray (D) with 60.79% of votes
  • CD 1 – Suzan Delbene (D) with 57.19% of votes
  • CD 2 – Rick Larsen (D) with 65.15% of votes
  • CD 3 – Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) with 58.83% of votes
  • CD 4 – Dan Newhouse (R) with 57.84% of votes
  • CD 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) with 58.32% of votes
  • CD 6 – Derek Kilmer (D) with 62.25% of votes
  • CD 7 – Pramila Jayapal (D) with 57.16% of votes

Lame Duck Agenda and Beyond

In the near term, Congress needs to pass some sort of appropriations measure to either complete FY 2017 or continue FY 2016 funding. The path forward prior to the election was murky, but now is even more unclear.

In the 115th, Congress will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government, whether that means finishing FY 2017 and/or approaching FY 2018,  and raising the nation’s debt limit. The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative, and already some hardliners in the Freedom Caucus have threatened to pull their support for Speaker Ryan.

The Trump campaign was not policy heavy, and many questions on what a Trump Presidency will look and do remain murky at best. On the trail, Trump was vocal on repealing Obamacare, and now with the House and Senate majorities, that repeal seems very possible. Other campaign promises, such as a border wall, immigration restrictions, tax breaks, and opposition to trade deals are all expected to be considered moving forward. One item, which has been prominent for Republicans across the board, has been looking for a massive infrastructure bill. If history is a guide, such a bill, like one seen in ARRA, would be wide and sweeping.

As we get further in to the Trump transition, Federal Relations will continue to update as more information becomes available.

Get Out the Vote

Posted on

It’s finally election day! Over 40 million Americans have already voted, thanks to early voting opportunities across the country, which should be over a third of the votes cast in this election.

Some basics…

To win the election, Trump or Clinton needs at least 270 electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes in total. Each state gets as many “electors” as they have members of Congress. This corresponds to 435 members of the House + 100 Senators + 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral college votes.

Here are the core swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. Other states like New Hampshire, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and one lonely electoral vote in Maine could plausibly be up for grabs. 

The earliest indicator of the night will be New Hampshire. It’s small but mighty with only four electoral college votes. However, If Trump wins there then he’s likely surged enough to win the whole thing. And if Hillary wins New Hampshire then it becomes much more difficult for Trump to win without a massive upset in the midwest (Wisconsin and Michigan are considered reliably democratic) or by winning Pennsylvania.

The two other East Coast states that might call the election are North Carolina and Florida. If Hillary wins either of those states then it’s basically over for Trump.

Control of the Senate is also crucial tonight. There are 34 seats up for reelection; Democrats need to win 15 of those 34 seats to claim the majority and Republicans need to win 21. Keep an eye on Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, which are especially close. 

To track what’s happening in the polls across the country here are some sites you might want to hit refresh on tonight.

The New York Times is providing unlimited access to all New York Times digital platforms through Wednesday so you can keep up with the election via the Times. 

Get accurate voter data from 270 To Win.

Get Nate Silver (and Co’s) take at 538.

What We’re Reading This Week, October 31 – November 4

Posted on

Here’s a selection of articles the Federal Relations Office is enjoying this week. Election Day is November 8th!!!

Marketplace Crunch – One of the most popular pieces of ObamaCare could be hurting the administration’s push to attract more young people into the wobbly marketplace. Because of the healthcare law, the White House says nearly 3 million young people under the age of 26 have been able to stay on their parents’ insurance plans and don’t have to shop for coverage on HealthCare.gov. That’s double the number of young people between the ages of 18 and 25 who are currently covered through the exchanges. An increase in enrollment is much needed by this group. The administration is staging campus enrollment drives and pouring money into Facebook and Instagram ads this year in an attempt to boost ObamaCare enrollment among young adults. Read more in The Hill. 

Cool Your Jets – Congressman Darryl Issa (R-CA) says Republicans need to knock off the impeach Clinton talk. Read more in Roll Call.

Statuary Hall (AOC)
Statuary Hall (AOC)

Why Tuesdays – Americans vote on Tuesdays. It’s inconvenient – people have to work, polls are crowded in the few hours they’re open before and after work. How did elections get this way? Read more at NPR.

Who’s In? – The vote is a mere weekend away, but the race for House Leadership is already on. Who is running for such vaunted positions such as Republican Conference Vice Chair or Democratic Policy and Communications Committee Chair? What gavels will be moving with the House Republican Caucus’s self-imposed term limits on chairmanships? Roll Call has the scoop. 

Civil War – The future of the Republican Party doesn’t look pretty after this election as deep schisms have revealed themselves down to the Republican base. How does the GOP move forward and what does forward look like?  Read more in Politico. 

Moral Minority – For the last several election cycles, Southern evangelicals, specifically Southern Baptists, have been staunch voting block for the Republican party, but things could change with new church leadership . Read more in The Atlantic. 

Down Ballot Boom – With one week to go before Election Day, Republicans are using the FBI’s decision to review emails found via an investigation of former Congressman Anthony Weiner’s computer as a last-second boost in the race for the House and Senate. Read more at The Hill. 

It Could Happen – Yes, Trump has a path to victory with electoral votes. It depends on how close the popular vote is in certain states to how they break in the electoral college. Read more in 538.

FBI & Emails – The FBI got permission on Sunday to look through 650,000 emails discovered on a laptop used by (current target of an underage-sexting investigation) Anthony Weiner and his estranged wife/Hillary Clinton confidante Huma Abedin, to see if any of those emails might be relevant to its investigation into Clinton’s use of a private email server. Read more in Slate. 

I Voted – Susan B. Anthony fought for equality for women for over 60 years and laid the foundation for the legal right to vote that American women enjoy today. Now, over 100 years after her death, admirers of the suffrage icon came to her grave with a different kind of tribute—dozens of “I Voted” stickers. Read more at Smithsonian Magazine. 

Brex-not-so-much – The UK Court has ruled that the British plan to leave the European Union has to be approved by Parliament. One problem, most MPs were against leaving. Read more in The New York Times.

Coffee, Tea, Me? – One silver lining in Brexit…it has raised the profile of the British so that they are now exporting tea to China. Read more in Marketplace. 

 

 

Obama Announces Intent to Appoint New Board Members to the NSB

Posted on

The White House announced that President Barack Obama intends to appoint W. Kent Fuchs, Victor R. McCrary, Emilio F. Moran, and Julia M. Phillips to the National Science Board (NSB).

Victor R. McCrary is Vice President for Research and Economic Development at Morgan State University. Dr. McCrary was the Business Area Executive for Science & Technology at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, where he managed technology investment strategies for over $60 million for internal research and development (IRAD) projects targeted to the areas of national defense and national security. Dr. McCrary was also a division chief at the National Institute of Standards and Technology where he received the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Gold Medal for facilitating and developing the first global industry standard for e-books. He has published over 60 articles and is a Fellow of the American Chemical Society.

Emilio F. Moran is the John A. Hannah Distinguished Professor at the Center for Global Change and Earth Observations at Michigan State University. He is also a Research Professor at the University of Maryland’s Population Research Center. He brings experience as a NSF grantee in cultural anthropology, geography, ecosystem science, and other disciplines. He provides an important interface with the physical and biological sciences through his research on human interactions with the environment under conditions of change. Dr. Moran has published over 200 articles, 11 books and 15 edited volumes. He was elected to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in 2010.

Julia M. Phillips is Director Emeritus at Sandia National Laboratories. As Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, she managed the Laboratory’s $160 million Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program. She was also responsible for research strategy development, implementation, and intellectual property protection and deployment. Dr. Phillips came to Sandia in 1995 after spending 14 years as technical staff and a manager at AT&T Bell Laboratories. She is a member of the National Academy of Engineering and a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.

The White House also reappointed Arthur Bienenstock, W. Carl Lineberger, and Anneila Sargent to each serve a second six-year term. Dr. Bienenstock, Professor Emeritus of Photon Science at Stanford University, has led the Board’s initiatives on reducing administrative burdens on federally funded researchers. Dr. Lineberger, E. U. Condon Distinguished Professor of Chemistry at the University of Colorado, and Dr. Sargent, Ira S. Bowen Professor of Astronomy at the California Institute of Technology, have both played key roles in NSB’s oversight and guidance of major NSF facilities and programs.

The NSB began accepting nominations for the Board last fall and made recommendations to President Obama for his consideration. Every two years, eight members rotate off the Board and a new class is appointed. Board membership will be complete when one more new member is appointed to the class of 2022.

Federal Agenda Submissions Due Nov. 21

Posted on

Each fall, the Office of Federal Relations develops recommendations for the University’s next federal fiscal year agenda, which is approved by the Provost and President. The Federal Agenda serves as the roadmap and foundation for the University’s communications with Congress and the federal establishment.

The the entire campus community is invited to participate in this process, which is currently underway for Fiscal Year 2018. Directions for how to participate can be found here. Please turn in submissions to Sarah Castro (smcastro@uw.edu) by November 21st.