Skip to content
News and updates

News and updates

Trump Agenda?

Posted on

President-elect Donald Trump (PEOTUS) met with President Barack Obama this morning in the Oval Office at the White House (in what may be the most interesting meeting there in a long while). Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence also met with House Speaker Paul Ryan after the White House meeting, and Pence met with Vice President Joe Biden, too. Other intel, Pence has already called at discussed the transition with the presumptive Democratic Senate Leader, Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and has reached out to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

What can we expect in the First 100 days of a Trump Administration? While many details are still unclear, there are some areas where we can expect both the White House and Congress to act. Congress next year will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government and raising the nation’s debt limit. Also to be expected are some sort of tax reform (likely cuts), Obamacare repeal and replacement, and immigration reform.

The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative. We should expect elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” agenda that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures. could easily rise to the top of the agenda.

The tight margin in the Senate — where Republicans are in control but still are far from the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster — means that the party’s leaders are most likely to use the budget reconciliation process to move their agenda. That procedure would only require a simple majority to cut off debate and proceed to a final vote.

Ryan has already said that he would seek to use reconciliation to pass tax cuts,  which incidentally is deploying the same procedural tool that Democrats used in 2010 to pass the health care law.

On the campaign trail, Trump championed infrastructure spending and paid family leave during his campaign, which could attract Democratic support. Trump’s economic plan — a combination of tax cuts, new spending on immigration enforcement and tariffs on foreign goods — would explode the deficit, even if Congress were to scale back somewhat the $4.4 trillion tax cut that Trump rolled out Sept. 15 at the Economic Club of New York.

 

Election Update: New Faces of the U.S. Senate

Posted on

Republicans will maintain control of the Senate in the 115th Congress with at least 51 senators after defending 24 seats in yesterday’s election. Two races have not been called yet – in Louisiana, where a run-off will take place in December, and in New Hampshire, where the vote count is too close to call. Here is a look at the five new Senators who will take office in January. [Source: CQ Roll Call]

NEVADA: Catherine Cortez Masto (D) was Reid’s hand-picked Democratic successor from Nevada and is the first Latina elected to the Senate. She is expected to pursue immigration reform and supported President Barack Obama’s executive actions in this area. As the state’s attorney general, her lawsuit against banks helped bring financial relief to homeowners caught in the housing bubble.

ILLINOIS: Tammy Duckworth (D) joins the Senate after serving in the Army Reserve, the Illinois National Guard and two terms in the House. Having lost both legs and partial use of her right arm after the Black Hawk helicopter she was co-piloting was shot down during her 2004 deployment in Iraq, she is a vocal advocate for veterans. She was born in Thailand to her American father and Thai Chinese mother. She is a proponent of background checks for gun purchases and opposes cuts to Social Security and Medicare.

CALIFORNIA: Kamala Harris (D) joins the Senate as the second African-American woman elected to the chamber. Harris was born in Oakland, and has served as California’s attorney general since 2011. Her agenda focuses on overhauling the criminal justice system, reducing violence and promoting civil rights. Harris has also prioritized creating a sustainable water supply and climate change legislation.

MARYLAND: Chris Van Hollen (D) takes the seat occupied by the longest-serving woman in the Senate, fellow Democrat Barbara A. Mikulski. Van Hollen said he will ensure that Maryland receives its share of federal funding, particularly considering the substantial presence of federal agencies based in the Free State. He will likely pursue tax overhaul legislation, as he has proposed raising the Social Security payroll tax for workers whose earned income exceeds $400,000 a year.

INDIANA: Todd Young (R) will keep the open Indiana seat in Republican hands as he succeeds the retiring Dan Coats who is a fellow deficit hawk. During his campaign Young ventured into the usually untouchable topic of increasing the minimum Social Security eligibility age for today’s younger workers. With unified Republican control of the government, attempts to modify entitlement programs could be in play.

NEW HAMPSHIRE: New Hampshire have elected Gov. Maggie Hassan (D) to succeed Kelly Ayotte in the U.S. Senate. As governor, Hassan built on a legal career with ties to hospitals and social services by pushing through changes to the state’s health care system and pursuing protections for seniors. She spent most of her career practicing law, including as counsel for Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. As Governor, she lowered tuition at state-run colleges and during her Senate campaign, she pledged to pursue expanding Pell Grants and lowering student loan interest rates.

LOUISIANA: In Louisiana, no candidate garnered the 50 percent needed to win the Senate seat outright, so a runoff between Republican John Kennedy and Democrat Foster Campbell will be held Dec. 10.

Election Update: the U.S. House of Representatives

Posted on

Despite losing six seats to the Democrats, the Republicans will maintain control of the Senate with 239 seats to the Democrats’ 193 seats. Consistent with the Presidential and Senate election outcomes, this is viewed as a very strong performance for the Republicans, who broadly feared losing more than 15 seats going into Tuesday evening.

Democrats flipped seven seats that were previously held by Republicans, while Republicans flipped two seats that were previously held by Democrats. Of the eighteen districts that were considered a toss-up by the New York Times going into Tuesday, Republicans won thirteen.

Of note for Washington residents, the Seattle seat held by retiring Congressman Jim McDermott for the last twenty-eight years was won by State Senator Pramila Jayapal. Jayapal will be the first Indian-American woman elected to the U.S. Congress. She moved to the United States in 1982 at the age of 16 to attend college, and worked as a civil rights advocate and Washington state senator prior to running for Congress. She won with the support from 136,547 Seattle voters compared to opponent, fellow Democrat Brady Pinero Walkinshaw’s 102,341 votes.

Elsewhere in Washington state, voters have elected their respective incumbents to continue to represent them in Congress. Here’s a look at the margins.

  • CD 1 – Suzan Delbene (D) with 57.19% of votes
  • CD 2 – Rick Larsen (D) with 65.15% of votes
  • CD 3 – Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) with 58.83% of votes
  • CD 4 – Dan Newhouse (R) with 57.84% of votes
  • CD 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) with 58.32% of votes
  • CD 6 – Derek Kilmer (D) with 62.25% of votes
  • CD 7 – Pramila Jayapal (D) with 57.16% of votes
  • CD 8 – Dave Reichert (D) with 58.38% of votes
  • CD 9 – Adam Smith (D) with 74.33% of votes
  • CD 10 – Denny Heck (D) with 59.53% of votes

Lame Duck Priorities

Posted on

Congress is scheduled to return next week for a Lame Duck session of Congress and many items still remain on the 2016 agenda before Trump takes office, including wrapping up the 11 remaining FY 2017 spending bills and a 21st Century Cures bill that both Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan said was a priority for passage in the Lame Duck session.  While President-elect Trump won’t be signing any bills in the lame duck, he will influence decisions on how to wrap up the 114th Congress.

While it is too soon to tell whether or not Congress will try to address its remaining legislative business in a Lame Duck session of Congress, or wait until President-elect Trump is sworn in on January 20 and Republicans control both the House and the Senate, a few things are fairly certain, dealing with the FY 2017 and the 21st Century Cures bill will be the Lame Duck priories.

FY 2017, Finishing the Fiscal Year

The current Continuing Resolution keeping the federal government open expires on December 9.  Prior to the elections, Republican leaders expressed support for passing a series of “minibuses” that would group appropriations bills together, while Democrats were leaning toward an omnibus bill that would include all of the remaining FY 2017 bills.  House Appropriations Committee Chair Rogers (R-KY) has said no decisions have been made yet on the process, but as of today, the House Appropriations Committee has put conference negotiations on hold pending further analysis.

However, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that funding the government remains a top priority heading into the lame duck and that lawmakers will wrap up spending bills this year rather than punt to the next Congress via another stopgap spending bill. McConnell said he plans to talk to House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Obama about how the FY 2017 bills could be enacted, but gave little in the way of specifics on how this would be accomplished.

That plan, though, was criticized by conservative House Freedom Caucus prior to the election as the Caucus continues to pushing for a continuing resolution to extend government funding into the next calendar year so that congressional Republicans can negotiate a spending package with Trump rather than Obama.

Must Pass? Should Pass? Legislation

Additionally, outstanding legislative priorities include the 21st Century Cures medical innovation package and mental health reform.  The Cures package is a particular priority of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Upton (R-MI), who is term limited as Chair. Upton has been vocal on having a package on the House floor next week when the House returned to session.  However, it’s unclear if the measure will be considered. Prior to the election, Democrats voiced wanting the mandatory funding for the National Institutes of Health in the bill, but also expressed desires to insert prescription drug controls and concerns about offsets. In addition, bringing a large mandatory spending bill to the floor may not help Ryan keep his speakership with his contentious caucus.

Several other issues remain before Congress, including the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which has seen some hiccups this year, but must pass annually. Also in limbo is the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), which passed the House and Senate respectively and is currently being conferenced.

Trade

The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which was a priority for The Obama Administration in the Lame Duck, will not be considered, according to House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX).  It will remain ”on hold” until President-elect Donald Trump decides whether to take action on the agreement in the next Congress.

SCOTUS

Supreme Court Justice Nominee Merrick Garland will not receive a confirmation hearing or a vote.  With the Senate remaining in Republican control, it will wait for President Trump to submit a new nominee for the Supreme Court after he is sworn in on January 20, 2017.

—

At this juncture, there are two likely scenarios for Congress to deal with these issues, and the outlook will be clearer in the coming days.

Clear the Decks

Under this scenario, President-elect Trump would indicate to Congress that he would like them to complete as much business as possible in the remaining days of the 114th Congress.  This would free up both President Trump, and the 115th Congress to focus on his priorities during the first 100 days of his Administration, as well as big-picture items such as a Supreme Court nomination and the debt-ceiling (which could be reached as early as March 2017).  This path would require some degree of cooperation from both the Obama Administration and the conservative element of the Republican conference.

Punting

The second scenario would be for Congress to push off all but must-do issues until after President-Elect Trump is sworn in.  Because Republicans would control both chambers of Congress and the White House, they would, in theory, have the ability to include more of their priorities in these bills before passage.  The risk in this scenario is that it bogs down the new Administration during their first days in office, at which time they will want to unveil new policy ideas, and when they have the most political capital to see those ideas to fruition.

 

Obamacare & the 115th

Posted on

Today, Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) announced the Republican leadership’s intention to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, quickly into the 115th Congress. While there is no confirmation on a legislative vehicle, the most likely means for Congress to pass something will be the Budget Reconciliation process. This process is also the vehicle that has been suggested to move any tax reform policies.

The slim majority of Republicans in the Senate, which will likely be 51-53 seats, would not be able to overcome the 60 vote cloture requirement. The Budget Reconciliation process would avoid a cloture vote, since the Budget Reconciliation requires a simple majority to pass.

Created by the Congressional Budget Act of 1974, Budget Reconciliation allows for expedited consideration of certain tax, spending, and debt limit legislation.  In the Senate, reconciliation bills are not subject to filibuster and the scope of amendments is limited, giving this process real advantages for enacting controversial budget and tax measures.  This paper addresses some frequently asked questions about reconciliation.