Washington State Election Forecast: Part I

Posted on October 29, 2024November 13, 2024

With the high-stakes 2024 general election just days away, pollsters, pundits, and forecasters have nearly unanimously reached the conclusion that the race is a toss-up, with neither candidate holding a clear advantage. Vice President Kamala Harris, who was thrust into the campaign after President Joe Biden elected not to seek reelection this summer, has spent weeks making her pitch to swing-state voters across the country. Harris is seeking not only to excite the Democratic base but also to appeal to Independent and moderate Republican voters, some of whom are wary of a second Trump term. Former President Trump, who has also embarked on a grueling swing-state tour, recently held a rally in New York City in which a number of prominent conservative figures drew controversy after they hurled insults at the Vice President. While the presidential election is undoubtedly the most highly anticipated event in this election cycle, several races in Washington State remain highly competitive, the outcomes of which will have massive implications for the coming Congress.

Statewide

While there are two statewide elections in Washington this year, both are considered to be safely in Democratic hands. In the gubernatorial race, current Washington Attorney General Bob Ferguson is heavily favored to defeat former King County Sherrif and Republican Congressman Dave Reichert to succeed three-term Governor Jay Inslee. Similarly, four-term incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell is expected to cruise to victory in her reelection bid against emergency physician and former gubernatorial candidate Raul Garcia. While Cantwell’s reelection allows the state to maintain its powerful position in the Senate, it remains likely that both Cantwell and senior Senator Patty Murray will lose their chairmanships as Republicans are expected to win control of the chamber. Should Republicans win a majority in the Senate, Murray would become Ranking Member of the Senate Appropriations Committee, with Senator Susan Collins of Maine taking over as Chair. Similarly, Cantwell would become Ranking Member of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee, with Senator Cruz of Texas becoming Chair.

House Races

Of the 10 House Races in Washington, 5 of the incumbents, all of whom are Democrats, are expected to win handily: Rep. Suzan DelBene (WA-01), Rep. Rick Larsen (WA-02), Rep. Pramila Jayapal (WA-07), Rep. Adam Smith (WA-09), and Rep. Marilyn Strickland (WA-10).

Should the Democrats flip the House, as many expect them to, Smith would become Chair of the House Armed Services Committee, and Larsen would take over as Chair of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

Two members of the Washington delegation have decided not to seek reelection in 2024, Rep. Cathy McMorris-Rodgers (WA-05) and Rep. Derk Kilmer (WA-06). McMorris-Rodgers, a Republican, is stepping down after two decades of representing Eastern Washington, serving as Chair of both the House Republican Conference and the Energy and Natural Resources Committee during her tenure.

The race to succeed McMorris-Rodgers is between Republican Michael Baumgartner, the current Spokane County Treasurer and a former State Senator, and Carmela Conroy, a former Foreign Service Officer with the State Department and chair of the Spokane Democratic Party. Baumgartner is expected to win the solidly Republican district and has outraised Conroy by nearly $1 million. Baumgartner is an eastern Washington native who attended Washington State University for undergrad before receiving a master’s degree in public administration from Harvard. Following his studies, he served as the economics officer in the Office of Joint Planning & Assessment at the United States Embassy in Baghdad. After leaving Baghdad, Baumgartner served as a civilian contractor in Afghanistan before returning home and running for State Senate in 2010. Baumgartner defeated incumbent Chris Marr in what is still considered the most hotly contested and expensive state legislative race in Washington history. Baumgartner unsuccessfully challenged Senator Maria Cantwell for Senate in 2012, and successfully ran for Spokane County Treasurer in 2018.

The race to replace Rep. Derek Kilmer in Washington’s 6^th congressional district is between Emily Randall and Drew MacEwen, with Randall favored to win the district. Randall has been a state senator since 2019, representing District 26. Prior to her tenure in the State Senate, she earned a bachelor’s degree in Spanish and women’s studies from Wellesley college and worked as a development professional with the San Francisco AIDS Foundation, Planned Parenthood Federation of America, and Legal Voice. Randall received the endorsement of Senator Patty Murray, which likely helped her to defeat state Lands Commissioner Hilary Franz in the primary, who was endorsed by the outgoing Kilmer.

Congress Averts Government Shutdown

Posted on October 3, 2024November 13, 2024

On Wednesday night, the Senate passed a continuing resolution (CR) that will keep the government funded at current levels through December 20th, averting a federal government shutdown. The bill now goes to President Biden’s desk for signature.

The stopgap bill, which passed the Senate by a 78-18 vote on Wednesday, was introduced after Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) failed to push his original funding proposal through the House of Representatives. This first attempt at a CR, which would have funded the government for six months, included the highly controversial SAVE Act, a Trump-backed plan that would require voters to provide documentary proof of citizenship at the time of registration. The majority of Democrats, despite a handful facing tough reelection bids, opposed the SAVE Act, citing the fact that it is already a crime to register or vote as a noncitizen in all federal and state elections. Without Democratic support, Johnson’s plan was unable to pass the House due to a divided GOP caucus.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) sits next to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) as a government shutdown looms.

After his original plan failed to pass the House, Johnson was forced to strip the SAVE Act and bring a new, three-month spending plan to the floor. The new bill passed the House on a 341-82 vote, with all opposition coming from Republicans. This move did not come without risk for Johnson, whose predecessor Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) became the first Speaker of the House to be ousted from his post when, last year, he was forced to work with Democrats to fund the government. Immediately following this bi-partisan maneuver, members of the GOP’s right flank voted to remove McCarthy from the Speakership. Johnson has defended the current bi-partisan funding bill, claiming that a GOP-led shutdown this close to Election Day would be “political malpractice.”

Having averted a shutdown for three months, Congress will now go on recess, with the stage set for a budget showdown when they return in November. Johnson has claimed that he will not allow any omnibus funding bills, which are large spending bills that package many programs into one, onto the floor during the lame duck session in December. While this would be a break with recent congressional precedent, much of the planning for this session will depend on the outcome of the November elections. For now, however, the government remains funded.

Agreement Reached for FY24 Topline Spending Numbers

Posted on January 8, 2024

Over the weekend, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) reached an agreement on FY24 topline spending which includes $886 billion in defense spending (3% increase over FY23) and $773 billion for discretionary funding (roughly the same as FY23).

There are two tight deadlines approaching: four of the twelve appropriations bills are funded through January 19 and the other eight are funded through February 2. There has been reports that Speaker Johnson could potentially agree to a short-term continuing resolution (CR) through March 1st so that the FY24 bills can be finalized. There is still a lot to be done, including writing the FY24 bills and working through disagreements on supplemental funding and other policy riders.

Congress Passes the FY24 NDAA

Posted on December 15, 2023

Both the Senate and the House have passed the FY24 NDAA this week, sending the package to President Biden. The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) sets the policy agenda and authorizes funding for the Department of Defense each year.

The final negotiated version of the FY24 NDAA authorizes $886 billion in national defense funding, an increase of $28 billion over last year, which includes both a 5.2% pay raise for military and $300 million for extended Ukraine Security Assistance (separate from the supplemental funding request), among other provisions. The legislation does not include two controversial provisions related to abortion and transgender health care access, which were included in the House version that passed this summer. Now that the NDAA is passed, the race is on to get the 12 appropriations bills passed before the short term continuing resolutions expire in January & February.

House Ed Committee will markup a new bill Tuesday to expand the use of short-term Pell Grants

Posted on December 8, 2023December 12, 2023

A new bipartisan bill was introduced in the House Education Committee on Tuesday that would allow Pell Grants to be used for short-term programs programs lasting eight weeks (currently, they can only be used for academic programs lasting at least 15 weeks). This would go into effect for the 2025-2026 school year. The bipartisan bill is co-sponsored by Rep. Virginia Foxx — a North Carolina Republican who chairs the House Committee on Education and the Workforce — and Rep. Bobby Scott — a Virginia Democrat and ranking member of the committee.

In order for a program to qualify, the Education Department would have to verify that programs maintain both completion rates and job placement rates of at least 70% and that there is a positive ROI, among other qualifications.

Chair Foxx has scheduled a committee markup on the bill for next Tuesday, Dec 12.