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Category: Pure Politics

Get Out the Vote

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It’s finally election day! Over 40 million Americans have already voted, thanks to early voting opportunities across the country, which should be over a third of the votes cast in this election.

Some basics…

To win the election, Trump or Clinton needs at least 270 electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes in total. Each state gets as many “electors” as they have members of Congress. This corresponds to 435 members of the House + 100 Senators + 3 electors for the District of Columbia = 538 electoral college votes.

Here are the core swing states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Iowa, and Nevada. Other states like New Hampshire, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan and one lonely electoral vote in Maine could plausibly be up for grabs. 

The earliest indicator of the night will be New Hampshire. It’s small but mighty with only four electoral college votes. However, If Trump wins there then he’s likely surged enough to win the whole thing. And if Hillary wins New Hampshire then it becomes much more difficult for Trump to win without a massive upset in the midwest (Wisconsin and Michigan are considered reliably democratic) or by winning Pennsylvania.

The two other East Coast states that might call the election are North Carolina and Florida. If Hillary wins either of those states then it’s basically over for Trump.

Control of the Senate is also crucial tonight. There are 34 seats up for reelection; Democrats need to win 15 of those 34 seats to claim the majority and Republicans need to win 21. Keep an eye on Nevada, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Missouri, Indiana and North Carolina, which are especially close. 

To track what’s happening in the polls across the country here are some sites you might want to hit refresh on tonight.

The New York Times is providing unlimited access to all New York Times digital platforms through Wednesday so you can keep up with the election via the Times. 

Get accurate voter data from 270 To Win.

Get Nate Silver (and Co’s) take at 538.

Late Votes, Last Minute Save

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With almost two days to spare, the House passed a 10-week stopgap spending bill, passed by the Senate earlier today, that would prevent a government shutdown at the end of this week. The measure passed the House by a vote of 342-85.

As previously mentioned, the measure generally provides continued funding for federal government operations through December 9 at existing levels. There were FY 2016 adjustments for FY 2017, including increase funding to address the opioid epidemic. The measure also provides $500 million in emergency supplemental funding for initial disaster response efforts to severe flooding in Louisiana and other states. It provides $1.1 billion in supplemental funding for activities in response to the Zika virus, including $933 million in domestic funding and roughly $175 million in international funding, with approximately $400 million of the total being offset. Finally, the CR provides full-year FY 2017 appropriations for military construction and for the VA Department, and is identical to the Military Construction-VA appropriations agreement reached in June between House and Senate conferees.

The White House earlier today announced its support for the CR/Zika package.

With that, the House and Senate have voted to keep the government open and operating until December 9th. The bill goes to the President’s desk to be signed, and Congress leaves town to go get reelected.

 

Senate Passes 10-Week Continuing Resolution

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Today the Senate passed a 10-week continuing resolution (CR) to fund the federal government through December 9. In addition, the CR also provides $500 million for flood relief in Louisiana and surrounding areas, year-long appropriations for military construction and veterans programs, and $1.1 billion for efforts to mediate the spread of the Zika virus. The House must take action on the CR by Friday in order to avoid a government shutdown, as the federal fiscal year ends on September 30. 

Previously, Senate Democrats blocked the measure because it did not contain funding to help Flint, Michigan, repair its lead-tainted water supply. However, House and Senate leaders have negotiated an agreement, and the House will amend its version of the Water Resource Development Act (WRDA) to provide funding for Flint to mediate its water emergency. 

Count Down to Shut Down: New Strategy

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Senate leaders have been locked in partisan combat for days over whether a stopgap spending measure to keep the government running past Friday should include disaster aid at all. Senate Republicans included $500 million for flood victims in Louisiana and other water-drenched states, where thousands of homes have been destroyed or damaged. Democrats, however, have insisted that any effort to help Louisiana should be coupled with aid to Flint, MI, where an estimated 9,000 children have been poisoned by lead from a contaminated water system for more than a year.

The Senate Republican proposed stopgap measure, which was presented last week and  drafted last week without Democratic cooperation, would extend current funding levels to December 9, while providing $1.1 billion to combat the Zika virus. It also would offer a full year of funding for the Department of Veterans Affairs and military construction projects.

The measure failed, as expected, to advance the measure Tuesday, when supporters mustered only 45 votes for it on a procedural test or a cloture vote, which requires 60 votes to proceed.

Today, the Senate has invoked cloture on a 10-week continuing resolution. The vote is the first in a series on the stopgap spending package, which is needed to avoid a government shutdown when FY 2016 funding expires at midnight on Friday. Senate Democrats objections were resolved Wednesday following the failed vote on Wednesday after congressional leaders reached a deal to provide aid for Flint, MI, through separate authorizing legislation.

The tally was 60-13 with voting continuing to proceed on the motion, and ending debate.

Shut Down Looms, Senate Fails to Get Cloture

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This afternoon, the Senate failed to get the 60 votes necessary to invoke cloture, or limit debate, on the expected legislative vehicle for a 10-week continuing resolution (CR). The measure funds the government until December 9th as well as includes emergency spending to combat the Zika virus; $500 million in flood relief for Louisiana and other states; and full-year appropriations for military construction and veterans programs, among other contents.  Without cloture, the Senate cannot move forward procedurally with a stopgap needed to keep the government funded past Friday September 30.

Senate Democrats overwhelmingly voted against the measure because it contains no funds for Flint, MI to repair its lead-contaminated water system. Top Senate Democrats said they would not settle for a commitment from Republicans to include the money during a conference committee consideration of a water resources bill that has passed the Senate and is being considered in the House this week.

Following the vote, Senate Republicans said they are weighing the possibility of dropping flood relief for Louisiana and other states from the package in order to meet Democratic demands and avoid a government shutdown at the end of the week. 

On the House side, House Appropriations Chairman Hal Rogers (R-KY) stated that the House will “have a response” if the Senate’s procedural vote on the continuing resolution is rejected this afternoon. In addition, on Monday night the House Rules Committee advanced a rule for a water resources authorization bill that includes language providing “same-day authority” through September 30 to speed consideration of a CR. The Rules Committee last week had already granted same-day authority, otherwise known as “martial law,” through Tuesday. 

House and Senate Lawmakers will now have to head back to the negotiating table and hash out a deal palatable enough to garner 60 votes in the Senate that would also pass through the House before Friday at midnight.