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Category: Congressional To Do

Trump First Day Agenda

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President-elect Trump posted a 2 minute 37 second video on You Tube, which is the first time he’s addressed the American people directly since the election.

Mr. Trump’s video included six calls for action on trade, immigration, energy, regulatory curbs, national security (specifically cyber infrastructure), and lobbying ethics changes, most of which have already been announced either during the campaign or the transition period.

Of note, Trump did not mention action on the Affordable Care Act, his proposed wall along the southern border, the tax code, or the Iran nuclear deal, all of which were central arguments for his election.

See the video here or below.

Thanksgiving Recess

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Congress is out for the Thanksgiving Recess. They return next week to address the CR, and what that should entail as well as the NDAA, 21st Century Cures, the Water Resources Development bill, and any other legislation they can possibly get passed.

White House Ceremony to Receive the 40th Thanksgiving Turkey, 1987
White House Ceremony to Receive the 40th Thanksgiving Turkey, 1987

Thanksgiving is a federal holiday observed on the fourth Thursday in November. Thanksgiving began in 1621 as a harvest celebration between the Pilgrims and the Wampanoag Indians, and has become a time for families and friends to gather to reflect, to express gratitude, to eat lots, and to watch college football rivalries. Presidents pardon turkeys.

In 1789, President George Washington declared November 26 a national day of Thanksgiving. Subsequent Presidents issued Thanksgiving proclamations, but the dates of the commemoration changed. In 1863, President Abraham Lincoln issued a proclamation establishing the last Thursday of November as Thanksgiving In October 1941, Congress formally recognized the last Thursday or November as the legally observed holiday by passing H.J. Res. 41.

Happy Thanksgiving from Federal Relations!

New Member Orientation and the Perils of Lame Duck

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After a bruising election, House and Senate are both back in session today to figure out how (and what) to move forward in the Lame Duck. The overall priority will be to find a way to fund the government into next year. Also on the agenda are a series of bills including the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), 21st Century Cures – a major funding measure for health care research, as well as the Water Resources Development bill. 

Congress will be in session for a week before recessing for the Thanksgiving break. New Members in both the House and Senate will be in town for orientation. Also up this week are party leadership elections in both the House and Senate. While Speaker Ryan appeared endangered prior to the election, the Republican leadership in the Senate and House is expected to be the same. The more interesting party to watch in leadership elections this week might be the Democrats in the House. They badly underperformed on Election Day, and allies of Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the Democratic leader, have been busy trying to limit unrest over her continuing tenure. While, Pelosi is expected to remain leader, she needs to address rank-and-file frustration with life in the minority.

Show Me the Money
How will Congress approach funding? A stopgap through next spring has long been advocated by House conservatives. Prior to the election, an omnibus or series of smaller “minibus” packages was expected. Now with the House, Senate, and Administration all soon to be in Republican control, Republicans seem more inclined to pass a CR into the Spring of 2017 or even a full year CR, potentially with fully funding select FY 2017 measures already through the Appropriations Committee, than prior to the election. Exactly which measures that could be included for full year funding are still being discussed. It seems that House Republican leaders are leaning toward a CR, while Senate leaders appear to prefer a spending deal to wind up the FY 2017 this year.

Regardless, Congress still has to deal with the current President, and what he will sign, in the near term.
A CR until the spring would allow the new Administration to put its own stamp on spending within the first 100 days. That said, it will put another “must do” on the new Trump Agenda, which already has to shape FY 2018 spending as well as face an early (and highly unpopular with conservatives) vote on raising the debt limit, and will further complicate the Trump agenda of what to do with Obamacare, tax reform, immigration reform, infrastructure measure and more. 

That situation was complicated late last week by the $11.6 billion war supplemental the Obama Administration sent to Congress. It includes $5.8 billion in Overseas Contingency Operations funding for the Pentagon and another $5.8 billion in OCO money for the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. That funding could go a long way to bridging the $18 billion defense funding gap between House leaders and the White House.

Other Items

The NDAA, which is Congress’s annual need-to-pass defense fiscal policy bill, is currently being held up over a dispute over an endangered bird and LGTB rights is holding up the legislation. The White House has threatened to veto the annual bill if, among many other objections, it includes language that would allow federal contractors to discriminate against employees based on their sexual orientation. It is not clear yet if lawmakers will reach a compromise over the legislation before the end of the year.

Congressman Upton’s priority, 21st Century Cures, has also long been a possibility for the Lame Duck, but now its fate this Congress seems unclear.

The House and Senate passed widely different versions of WRDA in September, with the upper chamber’s bill being much broader. And while the House measure would authorize spending to help Flint, Mich. tackle its lead contamination crisis, the Senate’s bill would appropriate actual funding. 

Lame Duck Priorities

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Congress is scheduled to return next week for a Lame Duck session of Congress and many items still remain on the 2016 agenda before Trump takes office, including wrapping up the 11 remaining FY 2017 spending bills and a 21st Century Cures bill that both Majority Leader McConnell and Speaker Ryan said was a priority for passage in the Lame Duck session.  While President-elect Trump won’t be signing any bills in the lame duck, he will influence decisions on how to wrap up the 114th Congress.

While it is too soon to tell whether or not Congress will try to address its remaining legislative business in a Lame Duck session of Congress, or wait until President-elect Trump is sworn in on January 20 and Republicans control both the House and the Senate, a few things are fairly certain, dealing with the FY 2017 and the 21st Century Cures bill will be the Lame Duck priories.

FY 2017, Finishing the Fiscal Year

The current Continuing Resolution keeping the federal government open expires on December 9.  Prior to the elections, Republican leaders expressed support for passing a series of “minibuses” that would group appropriations bills together, while Democrats were leaning toward an omnibus bill that would include all of the remaining FY 2017 bills.  House Appropriations Committee Chair Rogers (R-KY) has said no decisions have been made yet on the process, but as of today, the House Appropriations Committee has put conference negotiations on hold pending further analysis.

However, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said this week that funding the government remains a top priority heading into the lame duck and that lawmakers will wrap up spending bills this year rather than punt to the next Congress via another stopgap spending bill. McConnell said he plans to talk to House Speaker Paul Ryan and President Obama about how the FY 2017 bills could be enacted, but gave little in the way of specifics on how this would be accomplished.

That plan, though, was criticized by conservative House Freedom Caucus prior to the election as the Caucus continues to pushing for a continuing resolution to extend government funding into the next calendar year so that congressional Republicans can negotiate a spending package with Trump rather than Obama.

Must Pass? Should Pass? Legislation

Additionally, outstanding legislative priorities include the 21st Century Cures medical innovation package and mental health reform.  The Cures package is a particular priority of House Energy and Commerce Committee Chair Upton (R-MI), who is term limited as Chair. Upton has been vocal on having a package on the House floor next week when the House returned to session.  However, it’s unclear if the measure will be considered. Prior to the election, Democrats voiced wanting the mandatory funding for the National Institutes of Health in the bill, but also expressed desires to insert prescription drug controls and concerns about offsets. In addition, bringing a large mandatory spending bill to the floor may not help Ryan keep his speakership with his contentious caucus.

Several other issues remain before Congress, including the FY2017 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which has seen some hiccups this year, but must pass annually. Also in limbo is the Water Resources and Development Act (WRDA), which passed the House and Senate respectively and is currently being conferenced.

Trade

The 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, which was a priority for The Obama Administration in the Lame Duck, will not be considered, according to House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-TX).  It will remain ”on hold” until President-elect Donald Trump decides whether to take action on the agreement in the next Congress.

SCOTUS

Supreme Court Justice Nominee Merrick Garland will not receive a confirmation hearing or a vote.  With the Senate remaining in Republican control, it will wait for President Trump to submit a new nominee for the Supreme Court after he is sworn in on January 20, 2017.

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At this juncture, there are two likely scenarios for Congress to deal with these issues, and the outlook will be clearer in the coming days.

Clear the Decks

Under this scenario, President-elect Trump would indicate to Congress that he would like them to complete as much business as possible in the remaining days of the 114th Congress.  This would free up both President Trump, and the 115th Congress to focus on his priorities during the first 100 days of his Administration, as well as big-picture items such as a Supreme Court nomination and the debt-ceiling (which could be reached as early as March 2017).  This path would require some degree of cooperation from both the Obama Administration and the conservative element of the Republican conference.

Punting

The second scenario would be for Congress to push off all but must-do issues until after President-Elect Trump is sworn in.  Because Republicans would control both chambers of Congress and the White House, they would, in theory, have the ability to include more of their priorities in these bills before passage.  The risk in this scenario is that it bogs down the new Administration during their first days in office, at which time they will want to unveil new policy ideas, and when they have the most political capital to see those ideas to fruition.