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FY13 Budget Outlook

President Obama will release his FY13 budget on February 13th this year, one week late. Under the law, the budget is to be released on the first Monday in February but yesterday the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announced that they would be releasing the budget late. The Obama administration also delayed the release of the budget last year, waiting until February 14th. OMB offered no reason for the delay, but it’s not unusual for the administration to push back the date, this being the third time it has done so. President Obama is expected to offer some broad outlines of his budget this evening in the State of the Union address. The Congressional Budget Office meanwhile, will provide detailed spending and economic projections for the next 10 years on January 31st, when it releases its annual budget and economic outlook for fiscal years 2013-22.

The President’s budget request will urge lawmakers to come up with $1.2 trillion in spending cuts and scrap the automatic reductions known as sequesters that are due to kick in next year. Despite the failure of last year’s joint deficit committee, Obama has urged lawmakers to continue seeking ways to cut the deficit rather than face the automatic budget cuts mandated by last year’s agreement to raise the debt ceiling. During his State of the Union address, the President is likely to offer the broad outlines of his deficit-reduction plan. If lawmakers were to reach an agreement on deficit reduction, they would have to amend the Budget Control Act to turn off the sequester. Unless the law is changed, OMB will implement the sequester in January 2013 that would cut discretionary spending by a projected $97 billion in that year (7.8% cut to the overall FY13 budget). The law calls for annual sequestrations totaling almost $1 trillion and saving $1.2 trillion, including reduced interest costs, through fiscal 2021.

Members of congress from both parties say they are hoping to reach a deal with the President to negate the automatic cuts, or substitute another deficit-reduction package for them, before they take effect in January 2013. But because of the elections this fall, it seems most likely that the sequestration will be dealt with after November, leaving plenty of uncertainty in the months ahead.

FINAL FY12 Appropriations

Avoiding yet another threat of government shutdown, the Senate on Saturday approved the FY12 conference report after the House adopting it Friday.   The final package completes the work on the FY12 appropriations bills.  It includes the text of the underlying Military Construction-VA bill and eight other spending measures: Defense, Energy-Water, Financial Services, Homeland Security, Interior-Environment, Labor-HHS-Education, Legislative Branch, and State-Foreign Operations.  The President is expected to sign this bill sometime this week.  In November, a smaller package containing the other three annual spending bills was enacted (Agriculture, Commerce-Justice-Science, and Financial Services).  See our December 15th posting for information how programs will be funded for the year.

As an aside, it had been reported that the final FY12 deal included an across-the-board cut of 1.8 percent to provide for disaster funding.  That legislation, however, was not approved so there will not be an across-the-board cut for FY12. 

The Office of Federal Relations is signing off for the year.  We will resume posting to this blog after the New Year.  Happy Holidays!

FY12 Spending Package Conference Report Released

After negotiations late into the night and leaders finally reaching an agreement, the House today released the conference report containing details for the remaining nine spending bills. The House is expected to vote on the package this afternoon and then send it to the Senate for quick passage. It looks like Congress will remain through the weekend to try and work out a deal to extend the payroll taxcut for another year.

FY2012 Spending Bills Conference Report (HR 2055)

Defense

  • Overall Discretionary= $518.1 billion, an increase of $5.1 billion over FY11
  • RDT&E (Overall) = $72.4 billion, a decrease of $2.5 billion from FY11
  • DARPA language: The conferees recommend a total of$166,122,000 in undistributed reductions

throughout the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA).  The conferees

direct the Director of DARPA to provide a report to the congressional defense

committees, not later than 60 days after enactment of this Act, detailing by program

element and project the application of each undistributed reduction

  • NAVY University Research Initiatives = $133.2 million

Energy & Water

  • Department of Energy overall discretionary = $32 billion, increase of $328 million over last year’s level
    • ARPA-E = $275 million, increase of $95 million from FY11
    • EERE = $1.825 billion, decrease of $10 million from last year
    • Office of Science = $4.889 billion, increase of $5 million over FY11

Interior and Environment

  • Department of Interior
    • USGS = $1.07 billion, $30 million less than FY11
    • NEH = $146.3 million, $9 million less than FY11
    • NEA – $146.3 million, $9 million less than FY11
  • EPA
    • Office of Science and Technology = $795 million

Labor-HHS-ED

  • HHS overall discretionary = $69.7 billion, decrease of $700 million from FY11
    • HRSA = $6.5 billion, decrease of $41 million from FY11
      • Health Workforce  = $734.4 million
      • Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program = $2.33 billion, level funded
      • Healthcare Systems = $83.5 million, $3 million cut from FY11

**Note: language included that states that an additional $161.8 million may be used to supplement programs under the sections: “Primary Health Care”, “Health Workforce”, “Maternal and Child Health”, “Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program”, “Health Care Systems”, “Rural Health”

    • CDC = $6.1 billion ($38 million above FY11)
      • NIOSH (overall funding level)= $182.9 million, also includes language: “in addition to amounts provided herin, $110.7 million shall be available from amounts available under section 241 of the PHS Act”
        • Education and Research Centers = $24.3 million
        • Agriculture Forestry and Fishing Program = $22 million
    • NIH = $30.7 billion, $299 million above FY11 level
    • SAMHSA = $3.5 billion, $27 million below FY11
  • Education overall discretionary = $71.3 billion, decrease of $153 million below FY11
    • Pell = $5550 maximum award is maintained by implementing the following changes (estimated to save $11 billion over 10 years):
      • Eliminate the interest subsidy during the 6 month student loan grace period
      • Limit grants per student to max of 6 yrs/12 semesters
      • Require HS Diploma, GED/completion of homeschool program for eligibility
      • Slight adjustment of minimum Pell grant
      • Reduce eligible automatic income level from $30K to $23K
  • International Education = $74.2 million
    • IES = $594.8 million
    • JAVITS and GAANN programs will be consolidated at the recommendation of the administration
    • TRIO = $840 million

State

  • International Fisheries Commission (top line number) = $36.3 million

And this language:

The conference agreement includes funding for the  operational costs of  the International

Pacific Halibut Commission, including current lease expenses, and the conferees direct the

Commission to fund these costs prior to investing in new programs or expanding existing

programs

FY12 “Megabus” Bill

House and Senate appropriations members are close to an agreement on their $900 billion-or-so “megabus” appropriations deal on the remaining nine FY12 bills.  Agreement has been reached on all but two of the remaining nine bills:  Labor-HHS-ED and Interior-Environment.   There’s still a chance that the conferees will reach enough of an impasse on those two that they’ll propose a special CR just for them lasting until September 2012 (end of the federal fiscal year), while coming to a comprehensive agreement on the other seven.  We hope to see that draft later today or early tomorrow.  The House will take action on Wednesday followed by Senate action on Friday – probably just hours before the current continuing resolution (CR) expires at midnight.

Congress this Week

The Week Ahead

The House is in at noon today, though no votes are expected.  Eight bills will be considered under suspension of the rules.  House Republicans will try to move forward on a deal to extend the expiring payroll tax cut and could hold a vote this week.  The Senate’s in at 2 pm and will consider the nominations of four judges for district courts in New York, Texas, and Montana.  There will be a vote on one of the nominations; the other three are expected to be confirmed by unanimous consent.  Other than that, both chambers of Congress will continue to work on wrapping up the year’s business before adjourning for the holidays.  The biggest item on the agenda is funding the federal government for FY12.  The current continuing resolution (CR) expires December 16th.  Appropriators will spend the week working on an omnibus bill with a tentative plan to release a package on December 12th for a December 15th vote. 

Appropriations

Appropriators expect to make progress this week on wrapping the nine remaining FY12 appropriations bills into a year-end omnibus package.  Appropriators say that work on many of the remaining appropriations bills is nearly complete and their goal remains to clear the roughly $900 billion package before the current continuing resolution expires December 16th.  

Payroll Taxes, Unemployment Benefits, and the “Doc Fix”

Lawmakers also want to deal with proposals for extending an expiring payroll tax break, continuing unemployment benefits, and maintaining the current Medicare physician reimbursement rate, all of which are likely to be negotiated into a single legislative package.   The Obama administration is pushing for extending and expanding last year’s payroll tax, with a cost estimate of $120 billion for 12 months, and would pay for it by creating a new surtax on the top-earning Americans.  Senate Republicans blocked that proposal (S 1917) last week.  The GOP then countered with their own plan (S 1931), which called for paying for the break by extending the current pay freeze for federal workers and shrinking the federal civilian workforce through attrition.  That proposal was rejected by Democrats.  Meanwhile, House conservatives are skeptical of any extension.  The White House has indicated it may be willing to negotiate alternative financing, but any offsets would have to satisfy a significant number of Democrats, who will be needed to pass the bill in the House and the Senate.

A plan to block pending cuts to Medicare physician payments due to take effect early next year is also on the table.  This is an issue faced annually by Congress.  House Republicans want to freeze current reimbursement rates for two years at a cost of $38.6 billion, while senators from both parties say a one-year “doc fix” may be more feasible at a lower cost of $21 billion.  A longer fix would buy more time for members to come up with a replacement for the current payment formula, known as the sustainable growth rate (SGR), but Congress would prefer the lower price since it’s not usually offset.

The Office of Federal Relations continues to monitor and weigh in on these issues with our Congressional delegation.  At the same time, we are looking ahead to the FY13 process and how we can best protect major federal research funding.