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Another Short-term Funding Measure Unveiled

On Saturday, the House leadership unveiled a short-term spending bill that would keep the government funded through December 22. Because none of the 12 annual spending bills have been signed into law for FY2018, which started October 1, a continuing resolution (CR) was needed to keep the government open at current levels until negotiations over funding could be completed. The current CR expires at midnight, December 9.  The new CR is designed to allow negotiators to make further progress on FY2018.  Several Congressional leaders are acknowledging that another CR, beyond the one that would run through the 22nd, will likely be needed.

At this point, there is no agreement on how much money overall is even available for the federal budget in FY2018, making decisions on the size of each individual bill even more difficult to reach.  Without a compromise on a total spending level for FY2018 that would increase the current budget caps in place, both defense and non-defense programs would see cuts below the FY2017 levels.

Republicans will need help from Democrats to pass this short-term CR but it is far from assured that the Democrats will support it.

Congress Returns to Face a Full Plate

Both chambers of Congress return to DC this week after their Thanksgiving recess last week and face a long “to-do” list.

The Senate is currently expected to bring up its version of a tax bill this week and there is still uncertainty about its fate.  President Trump and the Congressional Republicans have set out the December holiday period as their self-imposed deadline for signing into law tax reform legislation.  The House passed its version on a nearly partisan vote just before recessing for Thanksgiving, with 13 Republicans joining every Democrat in opposing the bill.

It still remains to be seen at this point whether there is enough Republican Senate support to get a bill passed.  No Democrats are currently expected to support the bill, and further complicating the process are the push to include a repeal of the Affordable Care Act individual health insurance mandate as well as the concerns of a handful of Senators about the impact of the bill on the federal debt.

Even though FY2018 started on October 1, none of the 12 individual funding bills have been signed into law and the government is currently operating under a temporary funding measure that expires at midnight, December 9.  Part of the delay in finalizing the final budget for FY2018 is due to the lack of an agreement on how much total funding is available for the year.  Negotiations are currently taking place between the senior leaders in both chambers and representatives from the Administration about the top line funding levels for the rest of this year and potentially for next year.  Another short-term temporary package to keep the government funded past the December 9 deadline will most likely be needed to buy more time for the negotiators.

At the same time, there are discussions underway, at least among Congressional Democrats, about trying to tie a legislative fix on DACA/Dreamers to the end-of-the-year funding package.  Several Democrats have been very vocal about their support for such a move.

Potentially complicating the “to-do” list further is the sexual harassment controversies that have surfaced recently in both chambers.

This Week: CHIP and Taxes

The House and Senate are back this today for what will be the long slog until Thanksgiving. There’s a ton of to-do items on the agenda, including tax reform, raising the debt ceiling, FY 2018 appropriations, the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), and the list goes on. The focus for the House this week will be extending the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), while the Senate will continue on more judicial nominations. Both Houses will begin to turn efforts into tax reform.

The House is set to unveil their version of a tax reform bill on November 1 and a mark up in committee shortly thereafter.  Tentatively, this means, the House could consider the measure on the Floor during the week of the November 6. After passage, the measure would move to the Senate the week of November 13 for mark-ups in the Senate Finance and Energy and Natural Resources Committees and floor consideration during the week of the 20, which is Thanksgiving Recess. Per the agreed expedited process, the tax measure would be considered as a reconciliation bill, so it would only get 20 hours of debate and a vote-a-rama — it could be considered in three days.  While this schedule is incredibly ambitious, this framework is the working schedule as of now.

The House— one month after funding for the CHIP has lapsed — is gearing up for a vote on extending funding for the federal program, which insures nine million children in the US. Both parties have been negotiating for weeks. Earlier this month, the House Energy and Commerce Committee approved a measure to fund CHIP for five years with zero Democratic support. Democrats opposed cutting dollars from Obamacare’s public health fund to pay for the measure — so it wasn’t sent to the floor for a vote. However, the GOP is now moving forward as the clock keeps ticking: several states are slated to run out of CHIP money in the next few weeks.

Meanwhile, at the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, ehe Administration is set to announce a new Federal Reserve Chair this week and keep up the drum beat on opioids, but the Mueller investigation might make that difficult.

Stay tuned.

House Passes Emergency Spending

Today, the House voted overwhelmingly to provide $36.5 billion in disaster relief for victims of recent hurricanes and wildfires, as well as emergency credit to help Puerto Rico keep its government functioning. The spending bill, known as a supplemental appropriations measure, now moves to the Senate for consideration next week.

More Disaster Relief; Tax Reform Slowly, Slowly

It’s getting expensive to deal with disaster relief.

Going first, the House is scheduled to vote this week on the second installment of hurricane relief aid. While the Trump administration requested $29.3 billion, lawmakers have been busy trying to add to the total.

Texas lawmakers want an extra $18.7 billion for victims of Hurricane Harvey, which devastated coastal Houston. The Governor of Puerto Rico asked for another $4.6 billion to help the territory deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Maria. Florida lawmakers have asked for an additional $26.9 billion for victims of Hurricane Irma.

If all those requests were honored, the total aid package would balloon to $79.5 billion. Also, House Armed Services Chairman Mac Thornberry (R-TX) has lobbied the White House for extra money for missile defense to combat the threats from North Korea.

Disaster aid is considered emergency funding that is exempt from discretionary spending limits imposed by the Sequester. However, with the ultimate damage assessment from three recent hurricanes projected to reach a few hundred billion dollars, some conservatives are beginning push to pay for long-term rebuilding costs by cutting other programs, which is a nonstarter with Democrats.

This second installment does not even consider how the US is approaching federal disaster preparedness and recover. For example, the Administration’s request includes $16 billion to cancel debt owed by the National Flood Insurance Program, which has faced mountains of red ink since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The FEMA-run program literally can not pay claims.

…and Congress and the Administration haven’t started talking about wildfires yet…


 

Meanwhile, House and Senate leadership are slowly trying to fill in the Administration’s framework for tax overhaul. Generally, lawmakers have said the cost of tax rate cuts would be offset by eliminating most of deductions and credits in the tax code. However, the few ideas floated publicly have run into stiff resistance.

The idea to include a border-adjustment tax, that would have raised $1.2 trillion over 10 years, has been dropped after business lobbies complained that it would raise prices for consumers. Also, the idea to eliminate the state and local tax deduction has unleashed a huge volume of complaints to tax writers. Plans to completely eliminate the “death tax” have also been sidelined as it becomes more clear that reducing of changing existing taxes will be more politically manageable than outright repealing them.