Trump Chief of Staff and Senior Strategist Named

Posted on November 14, 2016November 14, 2016

Reince Prebus and Steve Bannon have been named to key leadership positions in the West Wing for the Trump Administration.

Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus will serve as Trump’s White House chief of staff. Priebus has a long relationship with fellow Wisconsin Republican, House Speaker Paul Ryan. At just 44, Priebus is already among the longest-serving RNC chairmen and a prolific fundraiser.

Steve Bannon, the former executive chairman of Breitbart News, will be senior adviser and chief strategist in the White House. The appointment of Bannon prompted harsh criticism and widespread alarm among political strategists. Bannon, , is described as a dangerous influence in a statement released Sunday by the ADL.

Bannon, 62, is a former naval officer and investment banker who is also closely associated with the white-nationalist “alt-right” movement. Bannon was the brains behind inviting the women who have accused Bill Clinton of sexual misconduct to be Trump’s guests at the second debate.

The Southern Poverty Law Center, the Anti-Defamation League and the Council on American-Islamic Relations were among the groups that put out statements decrying Bannon last night.

Federal Relations will continue to update on key Administration positions as the information becomes available.

Pence to Head Transition

Posted on November 11, 2016November 14, 2016

Today, President Elect Trump named his Vice President- Elect Mike Pence as the new head of the transition team with strong input from Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL). Previously, the transition team was headed by long-time Trump supporter, Governor Chris Christie (R-NJ). The transition team is responsible for filling over 4000 positions within the new Administration, including those at the Cabinet-level.

Trump Agenda?

Posted on November 10, 2016November 12, 2016

President-elect Donald Trump (PEOTUS) met with President Barack Obama this morning in the Oval Office at the White House (in what may be the most interesting meeting there in a long while). Trump and Vice President-elect Mike Pence also met with House Speaker Paul Ryan after the White House meeting, and Pence met with Vice President Joe Biden, too. Other intel, Pence has already called at discussed the transition with the presumptive Democratic Senate Leader, Chuck Schumer (D-NY), and has reached out to House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA).

What can we expect in the First 100 days of a Trump Administration? While many details are still unclear, there are some areas where we can expect both the White House and Congress to act. Congress next year will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government and raising the nation’s debt limit. Also to be expected are some sort of tax reform (likely cuts), Obamacare repeal and replacement, and immigration reform.

The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative. We should expect elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” agenda that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures. could easily rise to the top of the agenda.

The tight margin in the Senate — where Republicans are in control but still are far from the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster — means that the party’s leaders are most likely to use the budget reconciliation process to move their agenda. That procedure would only require a simple majority to cut off debate and proceed to a final vote.

Ryan has already said that he would seek to use reconciliation to pass tax cuts, which incidentally is deploying the same procedural tool that Democrats used in 2010 to pass the health care law.

On the campaign trail, Trump championed infrastructure spending and paid family leave during his campaign, which could attract Democratic support. Trump’s economic plan — a combination of tax cuts, new spending on immigration enforcement and tariffs on foreign goods — would explode the deficit, even if Congress were to scale back somewhat the $4.4 trillion tax cut that Trump rolled out Sept. 15 at the Economic Club of New York.

The 45th President of the United States Donald Trump

Posted on November 9, 2016November 9, 2016

Almost every DC pollster and expert thought that Clinton would win. They were all wrong. They were also wrong about the Senate. In the 115th Congress, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate, and the House.

Last night, Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. While a few states remain too close to call, Trump won 279 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. While Trump won the electoral math, it does appear as if Clinton will slightly overtake him in the popular vote.

Clinton conceded to Trump around 2:30 am EST.

A look at where Trump won helps explain why Trump won. Swing states expected to go for Clinton or to change Senate leadership — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina — all went for Trump. He carried three battle ground states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio — and then cracked Clinton’s blue wall with wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Few if any pundits predicted a Trump win in Pennsylvania or a lead in Michigan, each having been won by every Democratic Presidential candidate since President Reagan last notched a victory for Republicans in those states in 1988.

Clinton consistently underperformed President Obama’s strength with his winning coalition of college educated women, minorities, and young voters. While Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women, this margin was no better than Obama’s margin in 2008 or 2012 among this same group. Trump, on the other hand, logged support from 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points. White male voters, both with and without a college education supported Trump, and in the case of blue collar workers, overwhelmingly supported Trump.

While President Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support in this demographic group. The Clinton voter of the 2008 primaries became Trump voters in 2016 — and their concentration in tipping point states carried a significant impact in the result.

Congressional Results

In addition, the Senate Democrats only gained one seat, in Illinois, leaving the Senate in Republican control as Republicans are guaranteed 51 seats. Two Senate seats are still outstanding — New Hampshire has yet to be called and Louisiana will have a runoff in December. Regardless of who wins or if the sitting Republican Senators keep their seats, it will not change the majority.

The House remained in Republican control, but with a narrower, more conservative agenda. The very conservative House Freedom Caucus, and now a greater percentage of the House Republican Caucus, threatened to withhold support for Speaker Paul Ryan to remain Speaker in the 115th Congress.

Even so, elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” policy platform that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures, could easily rise to the top of the agenda with or without Ryan at the helm.

Washington’s Newest Member of Congress

Pramila Jayapal won Washington’s 7th Congressional District (CD) seat, which was filled for the last thirty years by Jim McDermott, who will retire this year. Jayapal will be the first Indian-American woman to be elected to the U.S. Congress. She moved to the United States in 1982 at the age of 16 to attend college, and worked as a civil rights advocate and Washington state senator prior to running for Congress.

She won with the support from 136,547 Seattle voters compared to opponent, fellow Democrat Brady Pinero Walkinshaw’s 102,341 votes.

Elsewhere in Washington, all incumbents will return to the nation’s capital for the 115th Congress. Here are the results by Congressional District:

US Senate: Patty Murray (D) with 60.79% of votes
CD 1 – Suzan Delbene (D) with 57.19% of votes
CD 2 – Rick Larsen (D) with 65.15% of votes
CD 3 – Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) with 58.83% of votes
CD 4 – Dan Newhouse (R) with 57.84% of votes
CD 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) with 58.32% of votes
CD 6 – Derek Kilmer (D) with 62.25% of votes
CD 7 – Pramila Jayapal (D) with 57.16% of votes

Lame Duck Agenda and Beyond

In the near term, Congress needs to pass some sort of appropriations measure to either complete FY 2017 or continue FY 2016 funding. The path forward prior to the election was murky, but now is even more unclear.

In the 115th, Congress will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government, whether that means finishing FY 2017 and/or approaching FY 2018, and raising the nation’s debt limit. The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative, and already some hardliners in the Freedom Caucus have threatened to pull their support for Speaker Ryan.

The Trump campaign was not policy heavy, and many questions on what a Trump Presidency will look and do remain murky at best. On the trail, Trump was vocal on repealing Obamacare, and now with the House and Senate majorities, that repeal seems very possible. Other campaign promises, such as a border wall, immigration restrictions, tax breaks, and opposition to trade deals are all expected to be considered moving forward. One item, which has been prominent for Republicans across the board, has been looking for a massive infrastructure bill. If history is a guide, such a bill, like one seen in ARRA, would be wide and sweeping.

As we get further in to the Trump transition, Federal Relations will continue to update as more information becomes available.

Welcome Back SCOTUS!

Posted on October 3, 2016

With the first Monday in October, we welcome back the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). By law, the first Monday in October is when the court commences its term, which will run until October of the following year, but in practice the term ends between June or July. As the term commences, we learn which cases SCOTUS will hear and will not hear in the coming months. Of the thousands of cases per year petitioning a writ of certiorari only a few hundred will be granted and thus heard throughout the term. In fact, the Court accepts 100-150 of the more than 7,000 cases that it is asked to review each year. To be granted a writ, only four of the nine justices need to agree to hear the case. A list of what the court will hear this term can be found here.

Some high-profile cases will be absent, notably a rehearing in United States v. Texas, the challenge to an Obama Administration policy that would have permitted as many as four million undocumented immigrants to apply for a program that would have allowed them to remain in the country and work here legally. The justices heard arguments in the case in April of this year, but in June they announced that they had deadlocked 4-4, an outcome that left in place the lower court’s decision striking down the policy. In July, the Obama administration asked the court to reconsider that ruling when it has all nine justices. The petition for rehearing was, as the federal government acknowledged in its filing, a long shot, and today the justices rejected it without comment.

Other cases that will not be considered include the trademark case of the Washington Redskins and the NCAA antitrust case.

The Washington Redskins asked the justices to review a decision by a federal trial court upholding the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office’s cancellation of the team’s trademarks prior to a final decision in the 4th Circuit.

The court also denied review in a pair of cases (NCAA v. O’Bannon and O’Bannon v. NCAA) arising out of a class action antitrust challenge to National Collegiate Athletic Association rules requiring college athletes to be amateurs. The lead plaintiff is Ed O’Bannon, a former professional basketball player who played on the UCLA team that won the national championship in 1995. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit agreed with the players that the ban on pay for athletes violated federal antitrust laws, and the NCAA asked the justices to weigh in, arguing that the 9th Circuit’s decision “threatens far-reaching deleterious consequences.” For his part, O’Bannon had challenged a portion of the 9th Circuit’s ruling that struck down the part of the trial court’s holding that would have allowed schools to give student-athletes, in addition to full scholarships, as much as $5000 per year in deferred compensation.