Tonight at 9 pm Eastern, 6 pm Pacific, President Obama is scheduled to give his 6th State of the Union address to Congress. The White House has been previewing certain initiatives, such as two years of free community college and paid sick leave, in advance of the speech tonight.
Tonight, however, the crux of his speech is expected to center around his economic proposals to promote the middle class and make a case for increasing federal spending on education and technology priorities. It is unclear, however, how his proposal to handle the largest funding issue confronting this last two years in office, the return of the Sequester spending cuts, will be received. The President is expected to propose increasing federal spending above the Budget Control Act levels in part by increasing taxes for the rich – his starting position in negotiations with Republicans that will ultimately determine the size of the budget for FY16.
Obama is unlikely to call for specific increases in stringent sequesters spending caps that start again in 2016, but he could call for ways to re-direct funds within those caps or come up with new revenues. As a remedy for past sequesters, the President has suggested maintaining funding for his priorities by increasing corporate taxes mainly by closing loopholes. That plan now would almost certainly be a non-starter on Capitol Hill with Republicans controlling both chambers.
The President did preview his tax increase proposals over the weekend, which included imposing a fee on financial institutions, closing the capital gains tax loophole on inherited assets, and raising the top rate of capital gains and dividends back to the Reagan rate of 28% among others. Additionally, Obama will propose increased and streamlined tax credits for the middle class for child care, two-earner families, and retirement savings.
For higher education, the President will propose consolidating the six overlapping education provisions into just two, while improving the American Opportunity Tax Credit (AOTC) to provide more students up to $2,500 each year over five years as they work toward a college degree. This move would likley make the AOTC permanent, index it to inflation, increase refundability, and resolve a significant problem of coordination with Pell grants that disadvantages low-income students. However, it is unclear how the Lifetime Learning Credit would be handled and the impact on graduate students.
The House adjourned yesterday for the annual Republican retreat. But before they left, the House took steps to block major provisions of the president’s immigration policy announced in November of 2014. As an amendment to legislation funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) for FY15, the House passed a series of amendments effectively blocking Obama’s executive action to shield millions of undocumented immigrants from deportation.
The underlying DHS funding bill passed by a vote of 236-191. The House also voted on a series of amendments meant to roll back Obama’s executive actions on immigration, including a controversial measure by Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) that would kill the 2012 Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program. That amendment narrowly passed by a vote of 218-209.
Earlier in the week, the White House had threatened to veto any legislation which negated his immigration policy, but the White House seems open to including some symbolic GOP immigration measure – although it’s unclear just how much they are willing to give.
Without new funding for the DHS, agencies such as FEMA would be prevented from distributing emergency grants to state and local governments in need in the case of a local, regional, or national disaster.
The package as passed by the House is unlikely to be taken up by the now Republican-controlled Senate. It is highly unlikely that the bill will get the 60 votes needed for cloture since the Republicans do not have a cloture-proof majority. The Senate Republicans are currently working on alternatives.
The Office of Federal Relations will continue to track this issue as it evolves.
In advance of his State of the Union address, President Obama is traveling to Tennessee today to announce one of his keystones of his 2015 agenda: two free years of community college. The proposal, called America’s College Promise, is based on Republican Governor Bill Haslam, who developed and launched Tennessee Promise, which begins this year. Tennessee Promise allows any high school graduate in that state is eligible for two years of free community college tuition under the Tennessee Promise. The President’s announcement is expected to be a cornerstone of his FY16 Budget Request.
The Administration’s proposal would make community college free for any student who enrolls at least part-time and maintains a 2.5 grade point average. The plan would allow anyone admitted to a community college to attend without paying tuition, so long as they enroll in a program meeting certain basic requirements, and they remain on track to graduate in three years.Qualifying programs would be one of two types: it would had credits that fully transfer to local public four-year colleges and universities or it would consist of training programs with high graduation rates that lead to in-demand degrees and certificates. All community college students, including those first entering community college or those going back to school, would be eligible for the program.
The White House estimates that approximately 9 million students would participate a year.
Any state participating would have to maintain funding for all higher education as well as pay 25% of the total cost. It is estimated the program could cost upwards of $15 billion per year. It is unclear how it would be paid for, but that information is expected to be made clear in the President’s Budget Request for FY16 on February 2.
Typically, the President would do these visits to promote new initiatives after the State of the Union and before the release of the President’s Budget Request. However, the President will be making a state visit to India after the State of the Union, and so promotion for big initiates is happening now in what the Administration is calling a Spoiler Alerts.
The President is expected to formally announce the America’a College Promise at 1 pm Eastern. In addition to Governor Haslam, the President will be joined by both of Tennessee’s Republican Senators, Bob Corker and Lamar Alexander. Senator Alexander is the Chairman of the Senate Health Education Labor and Pensions Committee. Watch the announcement live here.
The Office of Federal Relations will continue to track and update information on this initiative as it becomes available.
Today, Tuesday, January 5th, kicks off the 114th year the United State’s federal government has met to legislate. Over the next two years, the Republican party will control both houses of Congress for the first time since President Obama took office in 2004.
US House of Representatives Photo: House Clerk
This Congress will be the largest Republican majority since 1928 when the party won 270 seats. The House will have 246 seats (having gained 12 seats), which is 56% of the House. While significant, it is not the 60 votes needed to overcome cloture or override a Presidential veto. In the Senate, the GOP will control 54 seats (having gained 9 seats in the 2014 election), but again, short of the 2/3s needed to invoke a cloture vote or override a Presidential veto.
Some other facts:
The median age in the House will be 57 years old with the youngest member Elise Stefanik (R-NY-21) at age 30 and the oldest member John Conyers (D-MI-13) at age 85. Conyers will also be the longest-serving member of either house of Congress, having been first elected in 1964.
Forty-nine percent of the House, or 212 members, will have served less than a full six years, including 57 percent of Republican Representatives.
The House also has a record number of women — 84 total — and there are 20 female Senators. In both chambers, women are very disproportionately Democratic and in the House they make up more than three times as much of the Democratic caucus (62 members) than the Republican caucus (22 members). That said, the 114th Congress is 4/5th white and 4/5th male.
The Office of Federal Relations is excited to work report the ups, downs, turmoil, stagnation, energy and ennui which is Congress, and how that affects the University of Washington and our federal priorities.
As the 114th Congress convenes, House and Senate leadership are facing a challenging timeline of To Dos or Must Dos in 2015. The House and Senate Republican leadership have announced their intentions to pass legislation to allow for the Keystone XL pipeline, reform our patent system, and overhaul the nation’s tax structure. However, any number of issues or deadlines, expected or a surprise, can derail these efforts.
A number of complicated and esoteric legislative fights are spread throughout the coming year giving House and Senate leadership regular hurdles to pass their legislative priorities or any legislation at all. The stumbling blocks range from tricky transportation issues, to how to fund parts of the government, to updating a pricey Medicare program, and the always contentious issue of how to raise the national debt ceiling.
Arial view of the Capitol restoration (US Architect of the Capitol)
Below is a timeline of must-do items, all of which will pass only with high-stakes, inside the beltway political brinksmanship, that Congress has to address in 2015.
January 20th, State of The Union Address
Obama delivers his penultimate State of the Union address at 9 p.m. Eastern. There he will outline areas where the Administration believes it can reach agreement with Republicans. Last year, Obama stressed his willingness to use his executive authority when Congress does not take action, and he acted on it. As he enters the last two years of his term, he is likely to be more willing to exercise that authority, as he has shown through Executive Orders on immigration and Cuba.
February 2, President’s Budget Due
Due by the first Monday of February, the President’s Budget Request (PBR) for Fiscal Year 2016 Budget (FY16) is expected to layout big agenda items and initiatives for the Administration. The PBR follows up with more detail to the roadmap laid out by the President in the State of the Union address. Each year of the last several years, Democrats have expressed support and hope Republicans would work with them, and Republican leaders quickly disabused them of that notion. This year, the Administration has signaled FY16 will continue support for a number of science and technology priorities, including heightened emphasis on using big data to advance agency missions and a push for further scientific discovery and innovation and clean energy, much like in FY15.
For the last several years, the Obama Administration has missed the first of February deadline and the expectation is that it will do the same for FY16. Expect the budget to be revealed at the end of February or early March.
February 27, Immigration Fight
On February 28th, funding expires for the Department of Homeland Security. A short-term extension of Homeland Security funding was a condition for many House Republicans to vote “yea” last year for the “cromnibus.” House Leadership contended such a move would force the President’s hand on his immigration executive orders. It is currently unclear whether the House GOP has a plan to extract concessions in exchange for legislation to float the DHS coffers through the rest of FY15 or if Members are prepared to see the critical agency shut down on the first of March.
March 15, Debt Ceiling reached
The debt limit will technically be reached on March 15, though the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures” and springtime tax revenue are expected to buy Congress several months of additional time. It is estimated lawmakers have sometime between late Spring perhaps to early Fall before Congress has to act to avoid government default. Typically, the Treasury Department pushes lawmakers to act more quickly, while congressional leaders often seek to vote at the last minute in order to increase pressure on wavering lawmakers.
The account that pays for critical improvements to the nation’s transportation infrastructure, bridges and roads is due to run out of money by the end of May, and lawmakers would like to come up with something more than another short-term patch. The existing extension’s looming expiration date sets up another intraparty fight between Republicans who think the federal government ought to invest in transportation and infrastructure improvements and those who believe that should be left to the states.
Additionally, there will also be some important new regulations, including a Department of Transportation rule due out early in 2015 that would address the recent series of oil train accidents by setting new standards for the tank cars. And, the Federal Aviation Administration could put out a new rule on commercial drones to address the safety hazards if they get too close to large passenger planes. The drone rules could have a chilling effect on university research related to security, agriculture, natural resources, and aviation.
Mid-to-late June, Decision on Obamacare subsidies
The Supreme Court has decided to hear King v. Burwell, which will decide whether the Affordable Care Act (ACA) gives millions of people a federal subsidy to buy health insurance. Plaintiffs in the case argue that the subsidies can be given only to those people who live in states that have created their own health exchanges, which would mean that residents of more than 30 states do not qualify.
The court will hear oral arguments March 5th and likely hand down a decision near the end of its term in June. At least four justices agreed to review whether an appeals court was right to uphold the subsidies, not a good sign for the Obama administration. This ruling sets the stages for more legislative attempts to repeal the the ACA.
September 30, Federal fiscal year ends
Congress must pass appropriations bills by the end of September. No one wants another government shutdown, as we saw in 2013, but the inevitable friction between the Republican Congress and the Democratic Administration, especially over the fate of the Affordable Care Act, is inevitable.
The GOP will probably try to defund the Obamacare in the spring budget process because budgets cannot be filibustered and thus need only 51 votes. But Obama would veto any fiscal legislation that rolls back his signature achievement. The real test will come in September when Republicans have their truest chance to block money for implementing the law. And, if Congress has not yet taken action on the debt limit by this point, Republicans could hold all the FY16 appropriations bills hostage in order to gain leverage for greater spending cuts and/or a repeal of the ACA.
Sept. 30, FAA out of money
Funding for the whole government is set to expire at the end of September, the very same day funding for the FAA is also due to lapse. As with the Highway Trust Fund and surface transportation programs, lawmakers must secure support for an extension of the FAA and federal aviation initiatives, even if it is only a short-term fix. Fights could erupt within the House GOP over funding for small and rural airports — and inside both parties over daily limits on long distance flights coming into Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport, which sits in closest proximity to the Capitol out of all the area airports.
October 1, Return of Sequestration
The deal cut by Senate Budget Committee Chairwoman Patty Murray (D-WA) and House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) set spending levels through FY15. That means Congress is virtually certain to resume its fight over total, military and domestic spending this year when it considers the FY16 budget resolutions, if there are bills to pass, and in the FY16 appropriations bills. If the Senate or House is unable to pass a budget reconciliation bill, which is a common occurrence in recent years, the top line budget numbers will likely be included in a measure with items like the debt ceiling increase or defunding Obamacare. Neither the House nor Senate has majorities to override a veto.
The Office of Federal Relations will continue to monitor these issues and update on the situation and progress as it evolves.
