January 22, 2001
Media-driven public backlash spurred Clinton’s high job approval
While journalists, scholars and political pundits have speculated that negative media coverage of Bill Clinton’s most tumultuous time in office didn’t have any effect on the former president’s approval ratings, a University of Washington assistant professor argues just the opposite.
It seems unlikely, but Clinton’s approval ratings remained high and even improved as a result of the media coverage surrounding the Monica Lewinsky scandal, according to David Domke, an assistant professor of communications. “The media did have an effect, but they didn’t have the effect most people would expect,” he said.
Domke and three colleagues — Dhavan Shah, University of Wisconsin-Madison; Mark Watts, Abacus Associates; and David Fan, University of Minnesota — make the case in an article submitted to Public Opinion Quarterly that Clinton’s high public-approval rating throughout the Lewinsky scandal was the result of a complex interplay between distinct themes of media coverage. Domke identifies the three distinct themes of media coverage as “Clinton behavior,” “conservative attacks” and “liberal response.” Those three themes dominated news coverage after the scandal broke in early 1998 and continued past the House vote to impeach the president. The public’s response, surprisingly enough, was one of increased support for the president.
“The media coverage so overwhelmingly emphasized the partisan nature of the scandal and subsequent impeachment that it prompted a backlash among Clinton’s supporters,” Domke said. This “backlash” prompted a surprising increase in the president’s approval ratings during the Lewinsky scandal period. The president’s public approval has not dropped much since, and polls released during the last week of his presidency show that Clinton left the White House virtually tied with Ronald Reagan as the president with the highest job-approval rating during the last 50 years.
Domke and his colleagues relied on such polls as well as a thorough content analysis of major news media to determine the relationship between media coverage and the former president’s approval ratings. Using an innovative methodology, they analyzed these relationships on a daily basis throughout Clinton’s presidency and found that the themes worked together to benefit the president.
The “Clinton behavior” theme focused squarely on the president, with news stories about his sexual relationship with the White House intern and his efforts to avoid discussing the indiscretion. The “conservative attack” theme emphasized the actions of Republican leaders who were often characterized as architects of a partisan effort to remove the president from office. Finally, the “liberal response” theme portrayed many Democrats as disappointed in the president but supportive against the partisan attacks of Republicans who would use the scandal for political gains.
“It seems likely that the conservative attacks on Clinton and the liberal response, which questioned the motives of Republicans, worked together to intensify public support for the president,” Domke said. “The actions of Republicans and Democrats reinforced each other in a cycle of argument and evidence.”
As a result, Republicans’ political attacks — with the help of the liberal response to those attacks — had the unintended effect of rallying support for Clinton. Although their research didn’t account for who was supportive of Clinton during this period, Domke said it was likely Democrats and independents.
But while the Republican attacks did little to diminish Clinton’s job-approval rating, there was some payoff, according to Domke.
“Republicans took a calculated risk and it is the case that today they hold the presidency and control of Congress.”
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For more information, contact Domke at (206) 685-1739 or domke@u.washington.edu.
