Time Schedule:
Andre Punt
Q SCI 458
Seattle Campus
Emphasizes quantitative analysis of fisheries data to determine how the fishery would respond to alternative management actions. Major topics include production models, stocks and recruitment, catch at age analysis, and formulation of harvest strategies. Recommended: either Q SCI 456 or FISH 456. Offered: jointly with FISH 458; Sp.
Class description
The purpose of this course is to expose students to the use of mathematical models to represent hypotheses about population dynamics processes and to evaluate the implications of alternative management policies. Four major themes will be covered: how to develop mathematical models based on population dynamic hypotheses; typical models used in fisheries stock assessment; how to fit population dynamics models to data; and how to evaluate the consequences of alternative management policies.
The models to be investigated include: simple models that only consider the total population size; age- and size-structured models; individual-based models, delay-difference models; spatial models; stock-recruitment models; meta-population models; and predation and ecosystem models;
Fitting models to data will cover: sums of squares fitting; maximum likelihood; selecting among different models; and quantifying uncertainty using likelihood profile, boostrapping and Monte Carlo simulations.
Policy evaluation will focus on: use of Monte Carlo methods to project population size into the future given different future management policies; comparing different harvest regimes in terms of the trade-off between resource conservation and utilitization; and estimating risk of extinction.
The emphasis in this course is to develop the skills to represent alternative population dynamic hypotheses mathematically, to implement them using Visual Basic, and to critique them based on their assumptions and implications. These skills can be applied to a variety of application areas in additional to fisheries management. Models and model fitting techniques will be illustrated in the course using examples from fisheries and terrestrial systems.
Student learning goals
General method of instruction
The course will consist of three 50 minute lectures and one 2 hour computer laboratory each week. A series of optional computer programming tutorials will be provided at the start of the course to assist students unfamiliar with Visual Basic to obtain the necessary programming skills.
Recommended preparation
Class assignments and grading
Eight weekly homework assignments will contribute 70% of the final grade. These assignments will be based around the weekly computer laboratories, which will examine the following 9 topics. 1. Age-aggregated models. 2. Gray whale population dynamics. 3. Fitting age-structured models using sum-of-squares. 4. Fitting age-structured models using maximum likelihood. 5. Fitting delay-difference models. 6. Comparing observation and process error estimators. 7. Meta-population models. 8. Population projections. 9. extinction risk estimation.
Grades will be based on the weekly homework assignments (70%) and a 90 minute mid-term laboratory assignment (30%).
