UW Today

This is an archived article.

October 31, 2007

Washington Poll indicates three ballot measures may pass, but two others are tied


A University of Washington poll shows that three measures on the state’s November ballot may pass, but two are statistically tied, and plenty of voters remain undecided.


The second annual Washington Poll conducted telephone interviews of 601 people Oct. 22-29.  The poll is a non-partisan, academic survey sponsored by the University of Washington Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race & Sexuality.


Initiative 960 would require two-thirds legislative or two-thirds voter approval to increase state taxes. Forty-one percent of responders said they plan to vote yes, 40 percent said no and 18 percent were either undecided or didn’t know.


Referendum 67 would make it unlawful for health insurers to unreasonably deny certain coverage claims. Forty-eight percent of responders said yes, 31 percent said no and 21 percent were either undecided or didn’t know.


Constitutional Amendment 8206 would require the state Legislature to set aside 1 percent of state revenue each year for a budget stabilization account that could not be used that year. Sixty-one percent of responders said they plan to vote yes, 17 percent said no and 22 percent were undecided or didn’t know.


Constitutional Amendment 4204 would allow a simple majority rather than a supermajority to approve school tax levies. Fifty-nine percent of responders said they plan to vote yes, 31 percent said no and 11 percent were undecided or didn’t know.


Proposition 1 is the regional plan to improve local roads and highways, as well as extend Sound Transit light rail. It will cost an estimated $18 billion in additional sales taxes and car-tab fees. Forty-three percent of responders said yes, 46 percent said no and 11 percent said they were undecided or didn’t know.                  


The poll’s margin of error is 4 percentage points. (Percentages may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.)        


Matt Barreto and Gary Segura, UW professors of political science led the poll. Other collaborators include John Gastil and Patricia Moy, UW professors of communication; Christopher Parker and Bethany Albertson, UW professors of political science; and Todd Donovan, professor of political science at Western Washington University.


Pacific Market Research, located in Renton, administered the poll for the UW. It cost $25,000, paid by research funds from the universities involved.


A complete copy of the survey includes methodology, percentages of voters who might change their minds before election day and results according to political affiliation. The survey may be downloaded at www.washingtonpoll.org.


Additional results, including those on the Washington governor race and the United States presidential race, will be released in coming days.                               


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For more information, e-mail info@washingtonpoll.org.


Barreto is at (206) 616-3584 or mbarreto@u.washington.edu.