October 3, 2005
Local quake could cause $33 billion in damage, report says
A University of Washington, Bothell business professor has published research on the disastrous effects the regional economy will suffer in the event of a magnitude 6.7 earthquake along the Seattle Fault, which runs through Hood Canal in the west, across the Puget Sound and south Seattle, and into Bellevue and Issaquah.
Jacqueline Meszaros, who serves on the White House’s Scientific Subcommittee on Disaster Reduction, contributed the economic and business impact section of a report that serves as “a wake-up call for the vulnerability of the regional economy.” Meszaros is concerned that business owners in the area have been lulled into complacency by the 2001 Nisqually earthquake—her research found that only one-third of Puget Sound business owners said that the Nisqually earthquake prompted them to be better prepared.
“We found that the Nisqually earthquake, because it had a large magnitude number but a relatively mild effect, seemed to make a lot of people feel confident that earthquakes are not a big risk,” Meszaros says. “The reality is that earthquakes are a big risk here and it’s important to make that risk vivid to people so that they can make their decisions with a full appreciation of what we face.”
What the region faces, the report warns, is an earthquake that will be two to three times as powerful as Nisqually across much of the region. Property damage and economic losses are estimated to reach $33 billion, with over 190,000 structures damaged or destroyed, communications and utility infrastructures paralyzed, and Seattle’s transportation grid severely affected, causing long-term transportation problems that will further affect local businesses, many of which will fail or relocate. Even businesses with contingency plans may be affected indirectly by suppliers that do not have plans or are located in hard-hit areas, such as the Duwamish Valley. Meszaros points out that an earthquake on the Seattle Fault would be similar to, if not worse than, the Northridge earthquake in the Los Angeles area in 1994 or the 1995 quake in Kobe, Japan, where economic losses are still being felt by that metropolitan port city.
Despite the sobering picture of financial devastation, money is not the first consideration that prompts businesses to prepare.
“It’s the human losses,” Meszaros says. “When people realize what could happen to themselves, their employees, and their communities, they take it more seriously. There seems to be a split between people who admit a certain level of risk at an emotional level and, once they’re worried, will take steps to prepare and people who simply don’t worry at all about the risk.”
To business owners who would argue that preparedness is simply too expensive, Meszaros points out that information is a crucial step.
“In the case of the Nisqually earthquake, the businesses that sought out information about earthquakes did take steps to prepare, and the ones that didn’t prepare hadn’t even looked for information—they didn’t even do the inexpensive thing. The decision to take the risk seriously was the key, not the resources.”
The devastation of recent hurricanes has had a huge effect on attitudes toward preparedness, Meszaros says.
“Many public officials watching a community that faces the risk of ruin are worried that something like that could happen to their community, maybe even under their watch. There’s a huge flurry of interest, and experts in disaster preparation and assessment are all busy. This is what we call a ‘teachable moment.’ My impression is it will last about six months, and in that time we have to make as much progress as we possibly can in helping people learn about the risks in the hopes they’ll make good decisions about preparedness.”
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Meszaros can be reached at 703-292-7261 or meszaros@u.washington.edu
For more information on the report: http://seattlescenario.eeri.org/documents.php
