Almost every DC pollster and expert thought that Clinton would win. They were all wrong. They were also wrong about the Senate. In the 115th Congress, Republicans will control the White House, the Senate, and the House.
Last night, Donald Trump was elected the 45th President of the United States. While a few states remain too close to call, Trump won 279 electoral votes to Clinton’s 228. While Trump won the electoral math, it does appear as if Clinton will slightly overtake him in the popular vote.
Clinton conceded to Trump around 2:30 am EST.
A look at where Trump won helps explain why Trump won. Swing states expected to go for Clinton or to change Senate leadership — Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, Missouri, North Carolina — all went for Trump. He carried three battle ground states — Florida, North Carolina, Ohio — and then cracked Clinton’s blue wall with wins in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Few if any pundits predicted a Trump win in Pennsylvania or a lead in Michigan, each having been won by every Democratic Presidential candidate since President Reagan last notched a victory for Republicans in those states in 1988.
Clinton consistently underperformed President Obama’s strength with his winning coalition of college educated women, minorities, and young voters. While Clinton bested Trump by 13 points among women, this margin was no better than Obama’s margin in 2008 or 2012 among this same group. Trump, on the other hand, logged support from 70 percent of white men without a college education, besting Mitt Romney’s showing by 10 points. White male voters, both with and without a college education supported Trump, and in the case of blue collar workers, overwhelmingly supported Trump.
While President Obama received about 33 percent support from white men without a college degree, Clinton received just over 20 percent support in this demographic group. The Clinton voter of the 2008 primaries became Trump voters in 2016 — and their concentration in tipping point states carried a significant impact in the result.
Congressional Results
In addition, the Senate Democrats only gained one seat, in Illinois, leaving the Senate in Republican control as Republicans are guaranteed 51 seats. Two Senate seats are still outstanding — New Hampshire has yet to be called and Louisiana will have a runoff in December. Regardless of who wins or if the sitting Republican Senators keep their seats, it will not change the majority.
The House remained in Republican control, but with a narrower, more conservative agenda. The very conservative House Freedom Caucus, and now a greater percentage of the House Republican Caucus, threatened to withhold support for Speaker Paul Ryan to remain Speaker in the 115th Congress.
Even so, elements of Ryan’s “Better Way” policy platform that encompasses tax and health care overhauls, as well as national security and economic measures, could easily rise to the top of the agenda with or without Ryan at the helm.
Washington’s Newest Member of Congress
Pramila Jayapal won Washington’s 7th Congressional District (CD) seat, which was filled for the last thirty years by Jim McDermott, who will retire this year. Jayapal will be the first Indian-American woman to be elected to the U.S. Congress. She moved to the United States in 1982 at the age of 16 to attend college, and worked as a civil rights advocate and Washington state senator prior to running for Congress.
She won with the support from 136,547 Seattle voters compared to opponent, fellow Democrat Brady Pinero Walkinshaw’s 102,341 votes.
Elsewhere in Washington, all incumbents will return to the nation’s capital for the 115th Congress. Here are the results by Congressional District:
- US Senate: Patty Murray (D) with 60.79% of votes
- CD 1 – Suzan Delbene (D) with 57.19% of votes
- CD 2 – Rick Larsen (D) with 65.15% of votes
- CD 3 – Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) with 58.83% of votes
- CD 4 – Dan Newhouse (R) with 57.84% of votes
- CD 5 – Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) with 58.32% of votes
- CD 6 – Derek Kilmer (D) with 62.25% of votes
- CD 7 – Pramila Jayapal (D) with 57.16% of votes
Lame Duck Agenda and Beyond
In the near term, Congress needs to pass some sort of appropriations measure to either complete FY 2017 or continue FY 2016 funding. The path forward prior to the election was murky, but now is even more unclear.
In the 115th, Congress will need to take on must-do items such as funding the government, whether that means finishing FY 2017 and/or approaching FY 2018, and raising the nation’s debt limit. The slimmer House Republican majority will skew more conservative, and already some hardliners in the Freedom Caucus have threatened to pull their support for Speaker Ryan.
The Trump campaign was not policy heavy, and many questions on what a Trump Presidency will look and do remain murky at best. On the trail, Trump was vocal on repealing Obamacare, and now with the House and Senate majorities, that repeal seems very possible. Other campaign promises, such as a border wall, immigration restrictions, tax breaks, and opposition to trade deals are all expected to be considered moving forward. One item, which has been prominent for Republicans across the board, has been looking for a massive infrastructure bill. If history is a guide, such a bill, like one seen in ARRA, would be wide and sweeping.
As we get further in to the Trump transition, Federal Relations will continue to update as more information becomes available.