With the passage of a continuing resolution late last night, the federal government is open for business on this first day of FY2016! The threat of shutdown diminished greatly last Friday when House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced his retirement effective October 30, 2015.
The CR will fund federal through December 11 and includes $1.017 trillion in annualized spending, which is roughly equal to the FY2015 level (most programs would be funded under the CR at a rate 0.21 percent lower than enacted FY2015 levels). The CR would continue to fund Planned Parenthood and also provide $700 million in emergency dollars to fight Western wildfires. It would also renew expiring authorizations for the E-Verify program and the so-called Internet Tax Freedom Act (PL 105-277).
So, what happens between now and December 11? There are many possible outcomes for FY2016 appropriations. In the best case scenario, Congress could effectively negotiate a budget deal – similar to the 2013 Murray-Ryan deal – which would lift the budget caps for both defense and non-defense discretionary spending and remove the ongoing threat of sequester. This would pave the way for advancing spending bills (or an omnibus bill) before the December 11th deadline. If a budget deal is slow to materialize, then we could see another short term CR to give Congress more time to negotiate this deal. If budget negotiations fail, we could see the threat of shutdown reemerge or Congress could agree to a yearlong CR at FY2015 levels.
Early signs indicate that a budget deal is possible. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has already initiated preliminary discussions with President Obama and Speaker Boehner on a possible deal. Additionally, Democratic staff said this week that they are already beginning to set new topline numbers and identify possible offsets.
The Office of Federal Relations will continue to monitor and report on progress.